CAJ | 학술논문

本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域.
본문가설마니랍해구북단위잠재해소원,기우중국지진태망대마니랍해구지구진급측정편차,채용COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)해소수치모형,모의남해해소파전파.선취남해북연3개특정지점,기중량개위우화남근해구역,령일개위우태만도남단근해구역,차외환재림근마니랍해구북단적심해지구선취료1개특정지점.분석저사특정지점최대해소파이급최대해소파도시대우진급측정편차적민감성.결과표명:마니랍해구북단지진여촉발해소,화남근해구역이급태만도남부근해구역최대해소파진폭대진급편차민감,단최대해소파진폭도시대우진급측정편차불민감;진폭최대적해소파,이십궤분종즉가파급태만도남단근안구역,대약1소시후파급대륙화남근해북부구역.
The authors imagine the northern segment of the Manila Trench as an earthquake generated tsunami source. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model is used to simulate the propagation oi tsunami wave in the South China Sea. The sensitivity analysis for the effects of the deviations in earthquake magnitude on the maximum tsunami wave amplitudes and its arrival time at several specific locations in the northern area of the South China Sea is accomplished. The 4 locations are picked out: west to and near the north segment of the Manila Trench, an offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and two offshore areas southeast to and near Chinese Mainland. The sensitivity analysis shows that the maximum amplitude of tsunami wave is sensitive to the deviations in earthquake magnitude, whereas its arrival time is not. The simulating results of tsunami wave propagation in the South China Sea shows that it takes 24 minutes to reach the location in offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and about 60 minutes to reach offshore areas near Chinese Mainland for the maximum amplitude of tsunami.