长江流域资源与环境
長江流域資源與環境
장강류역자원여배경
RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN
2009年
12期
1173-1180
,共8页
鄱阳湖%水生态%安全评价%指标体系%PSR模型%层次分析法
鄱暘湖%水生態%安全評價%指標體繫%PSR模型%層次分析法
파양호%수생태%안전평개%지표체계%PSR모형%층차분석법
Poyang Lake%water ecosystem%security evaluation%indicator system%PSR model%AHP method
通过收集整理鄱阳湖社会经济、生态环境和水环境资料,运用PSR模型、层次分析法和综合指数法确定鄱阳湖现状年的水生态安全度并预测鄱阳湖水生态安全发展趋势.结果表明:城镇生活污水处理率、农业化肥施用量、万元GDP用水量、鄱阳湖水质、钉螺面积等指标对鄱阳湖水生态安全有较大影响;鄱阳湖现状(2005年)水生态安全度为0.513 3,属于"基本安全";2010年鄱阳湖水生态安全度为0.565 1,较2005年有所提升,但仍属于"基本安全"的范畴;近期内,鄱阳湖水生态安全度将在"基本安全"的范畴内波动.随着湖区周边经济社会的发展,环境压力的不断加大,若维持现有的保护力度,则鄱阳湖水生态安全的变化趋势不容乐观.应对环境压力的响应措施不足,主动保护水生态系统的行为或意识较为欠缺,是导致鄱阳湖水生态安全等级不高的主要原因.
通過收集整理鄱暘湖社會經濟、生態環境和水環境資料,運用PSR模型、層次分析法和綜閤指數法確定鄱暘湖現狀年的水生態安全度併預測鄱暘湖水生態安全髮展趨勢.結果錶明:城鎮生活汙水處理率、農業化肥施用量、萬元GDP用水量、鄱暘湖水質、釘螺麵積等指標對鄱暘湖水生態安全有較大影響;鄱暘湖現狀(2005年)水生態安全度為0.513 3,屬于"基本安全";2010年鄱暘湖水生態安全度為0.565 1,較2005年有所提升,但仍屬于"基本安全"的範疇;近期內,鄱暘湖水生態安全度將在"基本安全"的範疇內波動.隨著湖區週邊經濟社會的髮展,環境壓力的不斷加大,若維持現有的保護力度,則鄱暘湖水生態安全的變化趨勢不容樂觀.應對環境壓力的響應措施不足,主動保護水生態繫統的行為或意識較為欠缺,是導緻鄱暘湖水生態安全等級不高的主要原因.
통과수집정리파양호사회경제、생태배경화수배경자료,운용PSR모형、층차분석법화종합지수법학정파양호현상년적수생태안전도병예측파양호수생태안전발전추세.결과표명:성진생활오수처리솔、농업화비시용량、만원GDP용수량、파양호수질、정라면적등지표대파양호수생태안전유교대영향;파양호현상(2005년)수생태안전도위0.513 3,속우"기본안전";2010년파양호수생태안전도위0.565 1,교2005년유소제승,단잉속우"기본안전"적범주;근기내,파양호수생태안전도장재"기본안전"적범주내파동.수착호구주변경제사회적발전,배경압력적불단가대,약유지현유적보호력도,칙파양호수생태안전적변화추세불용악관.응대배경압력적향응조시불족,주동보호수생태계통적행위혹의식교위흠결,시도치파양호수생태안전등급불고적주요원인.
In this paper,the grade of water ecosystem security in Poyang Lake was confirmed by analyzing social economical and water ecological information,using Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model,AHP and Composite index methods.Results showed that the indicators such as sanitary sewage processing rate,chemical fertilizer quantity,million GDP water consumption,water quality in Poyang Lake and Oncomelania acreage,etc,had considerable influence on water ecosystem in Poyang Lake.The water ecosystem security value in Poyang Lake in 2005 was 0.513 3,which meant "basically safe".And the value would be 0.565 1 in 2010 according to the prediction,higher than that in 2005 but still belonged to "basically safe".In the near future,the water ecosystem security value in Poyang Lake would fluctuate within "basically safe".With the social economical development of the lake surrounding area and the increasing environmental pressure,the changing trend of water ecosystem security in Poyang Lake would not be optimistic if the protection efforts are maintained at the present level.Lack of response measures to environmental pressure and deficiency of active awareness and action to protect water ecosystem are the main reasons that lead to the low security grade in Poyang Lake.