CAJ | 학술논문

通过1999年1月至2006年12月天津市脑卒中逐月死亡率数据,应用圆分布法探讨脑卒中死亡率的季节分布,动态变化规律,建立监测与预测的时间序列模型.通过模型辨识、参数估计及其检验、白噪声检验、模型的拟合度分析等过程,建立求和自回归滑动平均模型(ARIMA)的季节乘积模型(P,d,q)(P,D,Q)s.脑卒中死亡率以年为周期,一年中1月为高发月份.建立ARIMA(0,1,0)×(0,1,1)12:模型:(1-B)(1-B12)lnx1=0.001+(1-0.537B12)εt.结论:ARIMA乘积模型结合圆分布法是对脑卒中死亡率进行时间序列分析的重要方法;应用该方法可对脑卒中流行趋势及死亡率进行预测,为卫生资源合理分配、公共卫生政策计划制定和防治结果考核提供科学依据.
통과1999년1월지2006년12월천진시뇌졸중축월사망솔수거,응용원분포법탐토뇌졸중사망솔적계절분포,동태변화규률,건립감측여예측적시간서렬모형.통과모형변식、삼수고계급기검험、백조성검험、모형적의합도분석등과정,건립구화자회귀활동평균모형(ARIMA)적계절승적모형(P,d,q)(P,D,Q)s.뇌졸중사망솔이년위주기,일년중1월위고발월빈.건립ARIMA(0,1,0)×(0,1,1)12:모형:(1-B)(1-B12)lnx1=0.001+(1-0.537B12)εt.결론:ARIMA승적모형결합원분포법시대뇌졸중사망솔진행시간서렬분석적중요방법;응용해방법가대뇌졸중류행추세급사망솔진행예측,위위생자원합리분배、공공위생정책계화제정화방치결과고핵제공과학의거.
To develop a model for forecasting the mortality of stroke in Tianjin,China.The time series of stroke mortality from 1999 Jan.to 2006 Dec.in Tianjin city were subjected.Circle distribution analysis was used to verify the trend of time concentration.Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s],based on model identification,estimation and verification of parameter,and analysis of the fitting of model,was established.Most of the deaths from stroke occurred in January and had a cycle of 12 months.An AR/MA model (0,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 was established(1-B)(1-B12) lnxt=0.001+(1-0.537 B12)εt.Conclusion: ARIMA & Circle Distribution analysis is an important tool for stroke mortality analysis.Potentially it has a high practical value on the surveillance,forecasting and prevention of stroke mortality.