CAJ | 학술논문

本文对马铃薯癌肿病生物学特性等方面进行综述，通过分析该病害的传播和定殖规律，并采用GARP生态位模型分析预测该病害在中国的潜在地理分布，参照国际上有害生物危险性分析方法，对马铃薯癌肿病在中国的危险性作出综合评价。结果表明，马铃薯癌肿病的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区，因此仍会继续在中国扩散；中国中东部的广大地区是马铃薯癌肿病最易入侵的地区，应采取措施防止其入侵。危险性综合评价值为2．163，在中国的危害风险性很大。
본문대마령서암종병생물학특성등방면진행종술，통과분석해병해적전파화정식규률，병채용GARP생태위모형분석예측해병해재중국적잠재지리분포，삼조국제상유해생물위험성분석방법，대마령서암종병재중국적위험성작출종합평개。결과표명，마령서암종병적잠재입침구원대우목전적실제분포구，인차잉회계속재중국확산；중국중동부적엄대지구시마령서암종병최역입침적지구，응채취조시방지기입침。위험성종합평개치위2．163，재중국적위해풍험성흔대。
The paper was the overview of the biological characteristics of Synchytrium endobioticum （Schilberszky） Percival. The paper made a comprehensive evaluation of the danger of Synchytrium endobioticum in China with analyzing the spread and colonization law of this disease and referring to the international pest risk analysis method, as well as using GARP ecological niche model to analyze and forecast the potential geographical distribution of the disease in China. The results showed that the potential invasion area of Synchytrium endobioticum （Schilberszky） Percival was much greater than the actual distribution area. Consequently, the disease would continue to spread in China. In addition, the vast area in the middle and eastern part of China could be the most vulnerable area to be invaded of the Synchytrium endobioticum, therefore, relevant departments should take measures to prevent the invasion. The comprehensive evaluation of the disease＇s danger was 2.163, which was of great hazard risk in China.