CAJ | 학술논문

本研究选择中国大陆地区人均可支配收入、消费者物价指数、国内生产总值,以及澳门与大陆之间商品进出口总额、港币与人民币汇率等变量,建立计量经济学模型估计内地赴澳门游客的数量.模型数据来源于澳门、大陆和香港官方公布的历年季度数据.在建立公式化的预测模型之后,本文还对模型的拟合优度和预测精度给予评估,对模型的基本假设进行了检验.本研究成果可作为有关政府部门和企业的决策参考.
본연구선택중국대륙지구인균가지배수입、소비자물개지수、국내생산총치,이급오문여대륙지간상품진출구총액、항폐여인민폐회솔등변량,건립계량경제학모형고계내지부오문유객적수량.모형수거래원우오문、대륙화향항관방공포적력년계도수거.재건립공식화적예측모형지후,본문환대모형적의합우도화예측정도급여평고,대모형적기본가설진행료검험.본연구성과가작위유관정부부문화기업적결책삼고.
This research built up an econometric model to estimate the possible number of visitors from mainland China to Macau by using the quarterly published official figures including average per person income, consumer price index of Mainland China, the total import and export of both Mainland and Macan Special District, currency exchange rate between Hong Kong dollar and RMB, and gross domestic product of mainland China as the variables. With the prediction model, the paper estimated the goodness of fit and the prediction accuracy of it and tested its basic assumptions. It is expected that the finding of the research could be used as reference for the related government departments and enterprises.