CAJ | 학술논문

基于1980-2007年统计数据,运用区位商和集中度,分析了黑龙江省主要粮食作物的竞争力及其总产量的变化特征,并采用等维灰数递补模型对粮食生产潜力进行了预测.研究结果表明:黑龙江省粮食产量呈现波动型增长态势,可分为高速增长期、低谷期和稳定恢复期3个阶段,这3个阶段粮食产量与国家粮食总产量变化都呈较强的正相关.黑龙江省2020年和2030年粮食生产潜力可分别达到4 418.08万t-4 664.60万t和4 432.43万t～4 707.42万t,在国家粮食安全战略中的地位将不断增强.表3,参14.
기우1980-2007년통계수거,운용구위상화집중도,분석료흑룡강성주요양식작물적경쟁력급기총산량적변화특정,병채용등유회수체보모형대양식생산잠력진행료예측.연구결과표명:흑룡강성양식산량정현파동형증장태세,가분위고속증장기、저곡기화은정회복기3개계단,저3개계단양식산량여국가양식총산량변화도정교강적정상관.흑룡강성2020년화2030년양식생산잠력가분별체도4 418.08만t-4 664.60만t화4 432.43만t～4 707.42만t,재국가양식안전전략중적지위장불단증강.표3,삼14.
Based on the statistical data of 1980-2007,the competitiveness of the major crops and changing characteristics of grain yield in Heilongjiang were discussed by using the method of Loeation quotient and concentration ratio.Moreover,the grain yielded potemial Was also predicted using the equal dimension and grey dynamic method.The results show that the grain yield in Heilongjiang Province takes on the fluctuated increasing character,which can be divided into three periods of the hish speed rise period,the trough period and the stable recovery period,and it shows a strong correlation between the Heilongjiang Province and China.And the potential grain yield of the Heilongjiang Province Can arise to 44.18-46.65 million tons and 44.32-47.07 million tons respectively by the end of 2020 and 2030.and the status of which in national food security will he strengthened greatly in future.