CAJ | 학술논문

利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告的22个新一代全球气候模式基准期(1961～1990年)模拟结果,从时空尺度分别讨论了与观测过程的差异,评估了模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟性能.结果表明22个气候模式对长江流域具有一定的模拟能力,地面气温的模拟值都偏低,部分降水的模拟值局部偏高.不同的气候模式的模拟能力差异显著,大部分模式对长江流域的模拟精度有待进一步改进,只有少数几个模式(降水有6个模式,气温有5个模式)的年变化趋势与实况基本一致.综合比较,UKMO_HadCM3和NCAR_PCM两个模式基本能再现长江流域降水和气温的年变化特征.长江流域降水和气温未来情景预估表明各个模式和情景结果虽然存在差异,但对未来90年气候变化的模拟趋势基本一致,将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加,并着重讨论了UKMO_HadCM3模式在2020s(2010～2039年)、2050s(2040～2069年)和2080s(2070～2099年)3个时段的降水和气温时空变化特征,研究结果表明3个时段气温和降水在不同情景下都是逐渐增加的,A2情景下未来降水增幅最显著,B1情景增幅最小.
이용정부간기후변화전문위원회제사차평고보고적22개신일대전구기후모식기준기(1961～1990년)모의결과,종시공척도분별토론료여관측과정적차이,평고료모식대장강류역기온화강수적모의성능.결과표명22개기후모식대장강류역구유일정적모의능력,지면기온적모의치도편저,부분강수적모의치국부편고.불동적기후모식적모의능력차이현저,대부분모식대장강류역적모의정도유대진일보개진,지유소수궤개모식(강수유6개모식,기온유5개모식)적년변화추세여실황기본일치.종합비교,UKMO_HadCM3화NCAR_PCM량개모식기본능재현장강류역강수화기온적년변화특정.장강류역강수화기온미래정경예고표명각개모식화정경결과수연존재차이,단대미래90년기후변화적모의추세기본일치,장지속증온、강수출현구역성증가,병착중토론료UKMO_HadCM3모식재2020s(2010～2039년)、2050s(2040～2069년)화2080s(2070～2099년)3개시단적강수화기온시공변화특정,연구결과표명3개시단기온화강수재불동정경하도시축점증가적,A2정경하미래강수증폭최현저,B1정경증폭최소.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR4) presents twentytwo global climate models (GCMs).In this paper,we evaluate the performance of the 22 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin by comparing with ground observations for 1961～1990.The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and some models overestimate precipitation in most regions in the Yangtze River Basin.Only a few models (6 models for precipitation and 5 models for temperature) show roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations.Comparatively,UKMO_HadCM3 and NCAR_PCM are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Yangtze River Basin.Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly,all the models predict consistent increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Yangtze River Basin in the next 90 years.The paper emphasizes the predictions of UKMO_HadCM3 for temperature and precipitation in 2020s (2010～2039),2050s(2040～2069) and 2080s(2070～2099).The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios,with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario B1 the smallest.