CAJ | 학술논문

在对新疆1973年以来年度地震预测情况进行综合研究基础上,重点分析了乌恰-喀什周围地区年度预测的阶段性特点,并对这一地区1900年以来M≥6地震和1972-2008年M≥5.5地震活动特征进行了的研究.认为对该区域地震活动规律性特点认识不足,没有遵循本地区地震活动的基本规律对地震趋势进行客观判断,是造成地震危险区预测效果较差的主要原因.依据地震活跃与间歇的特点认为2008年底开始乌恰-喀什周围地区将进入一个新的活跃时段,这一地区可能仍将继续被划定为年度强地震危险区.
재대신강1973년이래년도지진예측정황진행종합연구기출상,중점분석료오흡-객십주위지구년도예측적계단성특점,병대저일지구1900년이래M≥6지진화1972-2008년M≥5.5지진활동특정진행료적연구.인위대해구역지진활동규률성특점인식불족,몰유준순본지구지진활동적기본규률대지진추세진행객관판단,시조성지진위험구예측효과교차적주요원인.의거지진활약여간헐적특점인위2008년저개시오흡-객십주위지구장진입일개신적활약시단,저일지구가능잉장계속피화정위년도강지진위험구.
Based on the predictive results of annual seismic risk regions in Xinjiang since 1973, the efficiency in different phases for Wuqia-Kashi region is studied mainly, and the active character-istics of earthquake with magnitude M_s≥6.0 since 1900 and also the magnitude M_s≥5.5 from 1972 to 2008 are analyzed. It is considered that the earthquake prediction have not obtained finer results in the Wuqia-Kashi annual seismic risk regions, and the reason was lack of correct recog-nition to the seismic active regulations in this region. At last, according to the history earthquake activity characteristics, we predict that Wuqia-Kashi region will probably start an active period since the end of 2008, and it may be carry out an annual seismic risk area continually.