CAJ | 학술논문

目的分析辽宁省城乡居民1984-2010年慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)死亡变化趋势.方法利用Joinpoint Regression Program软件对数线性泊松回归模型产生的Monte Carlo组合检验确定趋势线拐点,分析拐点前后COPD死亡率的年均变化率及总体变化趋势.结果辽宁省城市居民1984-2010年和农村居民1999-2009年COPD死亡率均呈显著下降趋势.城市居民COPD中国人口标化死亡率从1984年的243.93/10万下降为2010年的33.13/10万,年均下降5.8％.农村居民COPD中国人口标化死亡率从1999年的251.33/10万单调下降至2009年的102.25/10万,年均下降6.8％.1994-2010年城市居民COPD死亡率均下降9.0％,超过农村居民1999-2009年年均下降水平(6.8％).支气管炎死亡率的下降是导致COPD总体死亡率下降的主要原因.COPD死亡率总体水平城市低于农村,城市男性高于城市女性,农村女性高于农村男性.结论辽宁省1984-2010年COPD死亡率呈显著下降趋势.
목적 분석요녕성성향거민1984-2010년만성조새성폐질병(COPD)사망변화추세.방법 이용Joinpoint Regression Program연건대수선성박송회귀모형산생적Monte Carlo조합검험학정추세선괴점,분석괴점전후COPD사망솔적년균변화솔급총체변화추세.결과 요녕성성시거민1984-2010년화농촌거민1999-2009년COPD사망솔균정현저하강추세.성시거민COPD중국인구표화사망솔종1984년적243.93/10만하강위2010년적33.13/10만,년균하강5.8％.농촌거민COPD중국인구표화사망솔종1999년적251.33/10만단조하강지2009년적102.25/10만,년균하강6.8％.1994-2010년성시거민COPD사망솔균하강9.0％,초과농촌거민1999-2009년년균하강수평(6.8％).지기관염사망솔적하강시도치COPD총체사망솔하강적주요원인.COPD사망솔총체수평성시저우농촌,성시남성고우성시녀성,농촌녀성고우농촌남성.결론 요녕성1984-2010년COPD사망솔정현저하강추세.
Objective To evaluate the mortality trend or chromc obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among residents in Liaoning province during the period of 1984-2010.Methods The cut-points were ascertained by Monte Carlo Permutation test in COPD mortality trend lines of Poisson regression with Joinpoint Regression Program.The annual percent changes (APC) before and after the cut-points and the average annual percent change(AAPC) of COPD mortality were examined during the period.Results Significant declining trends on COPD mortality among the urban population during 1984-2010 and that of rural population during 1999-2009 were found.The standardized urban COPD mortality rate by Chinese population declined from 243.93 per 100thousand in 1984 to 33.13 per 100 thousand in 2010.The urban 26 years AAPC was -5.8％.While the mortality in the rural population decreased from 251.33 per 100 thousand in 1999 to 102.25 per 100 thousand in 2009 in the same population.The rural 10 years' AAPC was-6.8％.The total trend of COPD mortality reduction was mainly resulted from the fast decline of bronchitis mortality.The AAPC of COPD mortality of the urban population was-9.0％ and greater than that of the rural population (-6.8％) from 1999 to 2009.The urban population had a lower COPD mortality than that of the rural population.In urban area,males had a higher COPD mortality than females,however,in the rural area,males had a lower COPD mortality than the females.Conclusion The COPD mortality among the residents of Liaoning province declined significantly from 1984 to 2010.Further studies are needed to confirm the viewpoint of WHO that the prevalence of COPD would have a continuous increasing trend in China.