CAJ | 학술논문

使用GRAPES模式对南海季风爆发进行模拟研究.针对模拟预报中初始场信息偏弱的情况,引入NOAA17卫星AMSU-B资料改进初值.直接利用GRAPES三维变分同化系统,设计了两个同化试验方案:试验1(T1)同时同化探空资料和AMSU-B资料、试验2(T2)仅仅同化常规探空资料,然后应用GRAPES有限区域模式进行模拟预报.通过对比试验发现,该模式对初始场的改变十分敏感,可以比较成功地模拟出南海夏季风的爆发时间和爆发候高、低层风场的配置以及季风与季风雨带的向北推进.然而该方案对于雨量和副热带高压位置的模拟,与观测相比尚存在一定的偏差,主要表现为副热带高压位置模拟偏西、偏北;南海地区的降水量模拟偏大、降水范围偏大.
사용GRAPES모식대남해계풍폭발진행모의연구.침대모의예보중초시장신식편약적정황,인입NOAA17위성AMSU-B자료개진초치.직접이용GRAPES삼유변분동화계통,설계료량개동화시험방안:시험1(T1)동시동화탐공자료화AMSU-B자료、시험2(T2)부부동화상규탐공자료,연후응용GRAPES유한구역모식진행모의예보.통과대비시험발현,해모식대초시장적개변십분민감,가이비교성공지모의출남해하계풍적폭발시간화폭발후고、저층풍장적배치이급계풍여계풍우대적향북추진.연이해방안대우우량화부열대고압위치적모의,여관측상비상존재일정적편차,주요표현위부열대고압위치모의편서、편북;남해지구적강수량모의편대、강수범위편대.
Generally speaking, the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is regarded as the beginning of the East and Southeast Asian summer monsoons and the major rainy seasons in these regions. Therefore, the correct simulation of SCSSM has significant implication. In this paper, in order to verify the impact of different initial model fields on model simulations, two tests are designed: Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data and Test 2(T2) assimilates only the sounding data. using the three-dimensional variation data assimilation system of GRAPeS. Comparative experiments show that the model is very sensitive to the initial fields. The model with the T2 assimilation scheme simulates the onset of SCSSM reasonably well, including the onset time, dramatic changes before and after onset, especially the upper and lower level flow patterns. For the amount of precipitation and location of the subtropical high, there are still some biases between the simulations and the observations. For example, the simulated location of the subtropical high was shifted more to the north and west, the simulated amount of precipitation for the South China Sea was too large and the simulated domain of precipitation was too broad.