CAJ | 학술논문

利用"雨燕"临近预报系统的雷达回波外推算法,对三次强对流个例的3 km CAPPI反射率因子、回波顶和垂直累积液态含水量进行0～1小时外推预测,将预测结果和组合阈值比较进行强对流天气预警区域预报试验.资料来源于CINRAD-SB雷达基数据经RPG算法处理得到的雷达产品数据.所用的方法是在扩展后的交叉相关追踪算法基础上实现雷达回波移动预测.试验结果表明:3 km CAPPI反射率因子、回波顶和垂直累积液态含水量雷达产品与实况有较好的吻合,能较好地预报出回波的形状、变化趋势和移动方向,回波的范围、位置和强度中心与实况相似,外推时间越短,预报效果越好.交叉相关追踪算法外推得到的雷达回波结果在0～1 h内是可用的;外推预测结果经过组合阈值的过滤后,得出的强对流天气预警区域预警结果也是可行的,对强对流天气临近预报有一定指示意义.
이용"우연"림근예보계통적뢰체회파외추산법,대삼차강대류개례적3 km CAPPI반사솔인자、회파정화수직루적액태함수량진행0～1소시외추예측,장예측결과화조합역치비교진행강대류천기예경구역예보시험.자료래원우CINRAD-SB뢰체기수거경RPG산법처리득도적뢰체산품수거.소용적방법시재확전후적교차상관추종산법기출상실현뢰체회파이동예측.시험결과표명:3 km CAPPI반사솔인자、회파정화수직루적액태함수량뢰체산품여실황유교호적문합,능교호지예보출회파적형상、변화추세화이동방향,회파적범위、위치화강도중심여실황상사,외추시간월단,예보효과월호.교차상관추종산법외추득도적뢰체회파결과재0～1 h내시가용적;외추예측결과경과조합역치적과려후,득출적강대류천기예경구역예경결과야시가행적,대강대류천기림근예보유일정지시의의.
Using radar echo extrapolation method of the GRAPES-based Severe Weather integrated Forecasting Tools (GRAPES-SWIFT) of the nowcast system, the 0-1 h ahead extrapolation and forecast are made for the ra-dar products such as reflectivity factor,echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content in three cases of se-vere convective storms, and we try to forecast the severe convection weather early warning area by comparing with the forecast outcome of the radar data to the threshold. The data come from the radar products derived from the CINRAD-SB radar based data which were processed by PRG algorithm. The method is based on the TREC algo-rithm to get the moving forecast of radar echoes. The result shows that radar products such as 3 km CAPPI reflec-tivity factor, echo peak and vertical accumulated liquid water content are approximately coincident with the actuali-ty, which can forecast the shape, change trend and moving direction of the echo, and the range, location and in-tensity center of the echo are similar to the actuality. The shorter the time of extrapolation is, the better the fore-cast is. The extrapolated radar echo from the TREC Algorithm is available within 0-1 h, and the forecast to the convection weather early warning area by the extrapolated result which gets through making up the threshold is al-so feasible, and they all can be used for the severe convective storm nowcasting.