CAJ | 학술논문

目前,森林火险气象指数被广泛用于世界多个国家和地区.本研究目的为,基于火险气象指数,在中国不同气候区建立火险概率模型.本文在中国4个气候区,使用1998-2007年的气象及火灾数据,以位置变量、月份、海拔、加拿大、美国及澳大利亚的气象火险指数、植被指数为自变量,建立了半参数化Logistic回归模型,分析各自变量与着火概率及大火发生概率之间的非线性关系.在不同区域,模型所选自变量组合不同,这与各气候区不同气象及植被状况有关.通过模型模拟数据和实际观测数据散点图、火险概率图、大面积火灾数量预报曲线图,分析了模型的预测能力.研究结果表明,在4个气候区,海拔和NDVI指数对着火概率影响显著.模拟可燃物含水量的气象火险指数由于反映出了植被的季节变化特征,在中国北部成为火险概率模型中的重要因子.模拟土壤有机层可燃物状况的火险气象指数在中国南部(东南、西南)成为火险概率模型的重要因子.在中国4个气候区,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,可以有效模拟月时间尺度着火概率及大火发生概率,并为分析火险气象指数的预报能力提供了有效途径.本研究为进一步分析气候与火险之间的动态关系提供了理论基础.
목전,삼림화험기상지수피엄범용우세계다개국가화지구.본연구목적위,기우화험기상지수,재중국불동기후구건립화험개솔모형.본문재중국4개기후구,사용1998-2007년적기상급화재수거,이위치변량、월빈、해발、가나대、미국급오대리아적기상화험지수、식피지수위자변량,건립료반삼수화Logistic회귀모형,분석각자변량여착화개솔급대화발생개솔지간적비선성관계.재불동구역,모형소선자변량조합불동,저여각기후구불동기상급식피상황유관.통과모형모의수거화실제관측수거산점도、화험개솔도、대면적화재수량예보곡선도,분석료모형적예측능력.연구결과표명,재4개기후구,해발화NDVI지수대착화개솔영향현저.모의가연물함수량적기상화험지수유우반영출료식피적계절변화특정,재중국북부성위화험개솔모형중적중요인자.모의토양유궤층가연물상황적화험기상지수재중국남부(동남、서남)성위화험개솔모형적중요인자.재중국4개기후구,응용반삼수화Logistic회귀모형,가이유효모의월시간척도착화개솔급대화발생개솔,병위분석화험기상지수적예보능력제공료유효도경.본연구위진일보분석기후여화험지간적동태관계제공료이론기출.
Fire weather indices have been widely applied to predict fire risk in many regions of the world.The objectives of this study were to establish fire risk probability models based on fire indices over different climatic regions in China.We linked the indices adopted in Canadian,US,and Australia with location,time,altitude,vegetation and fire characteristics during 1998-2007 in four regions using semiparametric logistic (SPL) regression models.Different combinations of fire risk indices were selected as explanatory variables for specific regional probability model.SPL regression models of probability of fire ignition and large fire events were established to describe the non-linear relationship between fire risk indices and fire risk probabilities in the four regions.Graphs of observed versus estimated probabilities,fire risk maps,graphs of numbers of large fire events were produced from the probability models to assess the skill of these models.Fire ignition in all regions showed a significant link with altitude and NDVI.Indices of fuel moisture are important factors influencing fire occurrence in northern China.The fuel indices of organic material are significant indicators of fire risk in southern China.Besides the well skill of predicting fire risk,the probability models are a useful method to assess the utility of the fire risk indices in estimating fire events.The analysis presents some of the dynamics of climate-fire interactions and their value for management systems.