CAJ | 학술논문

综合分析了应对20081106洪水的乌江梯级水电站联合调度效果及经验，并应用多元线性回归方法构建了乌江梯级水电站总发电量拟合模型，识别影响乌江梯级水电站发电量的关键因素及影响程度。结果表明，洪家渡和东风流域累计平均降雨在2008年10月和11月期间，分别比多年平均同期偏多40％～54％和71％～112％，经乌江梯级水电站联合优化调度后，梯级综合月末可用水量分别比2005～2007年同期偏高136％和162％，梯级综合发电量比2005～2007年同期分别偏多9％和141％，梯级水电站联合优化调度效果显著，且出库流量及龙头电站洪家渡的水位和月末可用水量是影响乌江梯级总发电量的决定性因素。研究结果对于从梯级水电站联合调度角度减缓极端天气事件对水电行业的影响具有重要的参考价值。
종합분석료응대20081106홍수적오강제급수전참연합조도효과급경험，병응용다원선성회귀방법구건료오강제급수전참총발전량의합모형，식별영향오강제급수전참발전량적관건인소급영향정도。결과표명，홍가도화동풍류역루계평균강우재2008년10월화11월기간，분별비다년평균동기편다40％～54％화71％～112％，경오강제급수전참연합우화조도후，제급종합월말가용수량분별비2005～2007년동기편고136％화162％，제급종합발전량비2005～2007년동기분별편다9％화141％，제급수전참연합우화조도효과현저，차출고류량급룡두전참홍가도적수위화월말가용수량시영향오강제급총발전량적결정성인소。연구결과대우종제급수전참연합조도각도감완겁단천기사건대수전행업적영향구유중요적삼고개치。
This paper analyzes the joint operation effect and experience of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations for handling the flood on November 6th, 2008 and forms the gross generation fitted model of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations by using the multiple linear regression method, to identify the critical factors influencing the generated energy of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations and its influence degree. The result shows that the aczaanulated average rainfall in Hongjiadu and Dongfeng hydrographic basin was focused in October and November in 2008, which ware increased 40-54% and 71-112% respectively compared to the average rainfall of many years in the corresponding period. Atter joint oplirnal operation of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations, the cascade comprehensive available water at the end of a month raised by 136% and 162% respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2005-2007 and the cascade comprehensive generated energy raised by 9% and 141% respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2005-2007. The joint optimal operation effect of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations is remarkable and the out flow, water level and available water at the end of a month in the leading hydroelectric station in Hongiiadu are the determining factors that influencing the gross generation of Wujiang River cascade hydroelectric stations. The research results have important reference value to slowing the effect of extreme weather events on the hydropower industry from the view ofjoint operation of cascade hydroelectric stations.