CAJ | 학술논문

本研究对工程结构进行评价的基础上,对既有工程结构剩余寿命的预测进行了研究,尤其在结构劣化模型的选取方面做了较深入的探讨,在充分分析结构的实际劣化情况和现有文献提供的结构劣化直线模型(认为结构的劣化速率随时间是不变的)的基础上,提出了一种折线模型(认为结构在每年内的劣化速度不变,而不同年份速度不同),为了验证此模型的可靠性,利用蒙特卡罗模拟预测模型,对不同维护情况下结构的剩余寿命用直线和折线两种劣化模型分别进行了预测,结果表明折线模型是可靠的,它比直线模型更接近于实际状态.
본연구대공정결구진행평개적기출상,대기유공정결구잉여수명적예측진행료연구,우기재결구열화모형적선취방면주료교심입적탐토,재충분분석결구적실제열화정황화현유문헌제공적결구열화직선모형(인위결구적열화속솔수시간시불변적)적기출상,제출료일충절선모형(인위결구재매년내적열화속도불변,이불동년빈속도불동),위료험증차모형적가고성,이용몽특잡라모의예측모형,대불동유호정황하결구적잉여수명용직선화절선량충열화모형분별진행료예측,결과표명절선모형시가고적,타비직선모형경접근우실제상태.
Based on the structure reliability assessment,the paper studies the residual life prediction of existing structures,especially the deterioration model selection by examining the actual deterioration process. In connection with the current views that the deterioration rate doesn 't change with time (linear model),the author proposed a new polygonal line model, which assumes that the deterioration speed remains the same in the same year but varies annually. These 2 models,linear and polygonal line model,were used to predict the residual life of the structure under different maintenance measures based on the MCS method. The results show that the polygonal line model is more reliable and closer to the actual situation compared with the linear model.