CAJ | 학술논문

对渭北旱原长武地区冬小麦产量与农业气候因子变化进行了通径分析,结果表明,降水和地温是影响该地区冬小麦生产的主要气候因子,播种～出苗期降水对小麦产量的影响较大,在分孽～越冬、返青～拔节、灌浆～乳熟期地温对产量影响更大.该地区近50年来年均气温呈明显上升趋势,而年降水总量总体有减少趋势,波动较大;且在播种～出苗期降水量有减少的趋势,极值出现几率增加,而在返青～拔节期地温有增加的趋势,且2000年后增加幅度增大.因此,在区域气候变化影响下,随着气候变暖和降水量减少及波动性增加,将会导致未来冬小麦产量的波动性增加.
대위북한원장무지구동소맥산량여농업기후인자변화진행료통경분석,결과표명,강수화지온시영향해지구동소맥생산적주요기후인자,파충～출묘기강수대소맥산량적영향교대,재분얼～월동、반청～발절、관장～유숙기지온대산량영향경대.해지구근50년래년균기온정명현상승추세,이년강수총량총체유감소추세,파동교대;차재파충～출묘기강수량유감소적추세,겁치출현궤솔증가,이재반청～발절기지온유증가적추세,차2000년후증가폭도증대.인차,재구역기후변화영향하,수착기후변난화강수량감소급파동성증가,장회도치미래동소맥산량적파동성증가.
The path analysis was made between meteorological factors and yield of wheat in Changwu County in the arid plain north of the Weihe River. The results showed that: the major meteorological factors which effected yield of wheat were precipitation and surface temperature. Precipitation had great effect during sowing to seedling emergence stage, while surface temperature had even more remarkable effect during the stages of tillering to overwintering, turning green to jointing, and filling to milk. During past 50 years in this area, air temperature had a rising trend significantly, basically identical with global climate change. With great fluctuation, the annual precipitation had a decreasing tendency in general, especially during sowing to emergence period. The ground temperature had an increasing trend during turning green to jointing period, with a greater range after the year of 2000. So it was good to improve the yield of wheat by climate warming, but with a fluctuation of precipitation, it was hard to make sure the yield under the regional climate change.