CAJ | 학술논문

以清洁发展机制(CDM)广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例,对项目及其5种造林模式临时核证减排量(temporary certified emission reduction,缩写为tCER)和长期核证减排量(long-term certified emission reduction,缩写为ICER)成本的动态变化进行了初步研究.结果表明:从项目期初到期末,整个项目及5种造林模式人工林的tCER成本均逐渐降低,其中项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33(￥)/t CO_2降至最后承诺期末的13.34(￥)/t CO_2;ICER成本先降低后升高,在第一承诺期末均降至最小值,项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33(￥)/tCO_2增加至最后承诺期末的105.27(￥)/tCO_2;各造林模式tCER和ICER成本均以枫香+杉木、枫香+马尾松较高,马尾松+荷木、马尾松+栎类较低,桉树最低;贴现率对项目tCER和ICER、桉树tCER、枫香+杉木ICER成本影响均较大,而对马尾松+栎类tCER和ICER成本影响均较小;对桉树一个轮伐期内的tCER成本进行了敏感性分析,单位面积碳贮量的变化对其影响较大;考虑木材收益时,项目期末tCER净现值为13.11(￥)/tCO_2,从中反映了该CDM项目实施是可行的.
이청길발전궤제(CDM)엄서주강류역치리재조림항목위례,대항목급기5충조림모식림시핵증감배량(temporary certified emission reduction,축사위tCER)화장기핵증감배량(long-term certified emission reduction,축사위ICER)성본적동태변화진행료초보연구.결과표명:종항목기초도기말,정개항목급5충조림모식인공림적tCER성본균축점강저,기중항목성본유제일승낙기말적40.33(￥)/t CO_2강지최후승낙기말적13.34(￥)/t CO_2;ICER성본선강저후승고,재제일승낙기말균강지최소치,항목성본유제일승낙기말적40.33(￥)/tCO_2증가지최후승낙기말적105.27(￥)/tCO_2;각조림모식tCER화ICER성본균이풍향+삼목、풍향+마미송교고,마미송+하목、마미송+력류교저,안수최저;첩현솔대항목tCER화ICER、안수tCER、풍향+삼목ICER성본영향균교대,이대마미송+력류tCER화ICER성본영향균교소;대안수일개륜벌기내적tCER성본진행료민감성분석,단위면적탄저량적변화대기영향교대;고필목재수익시,항목기말tCER정현치위13.11(￥)/tCO_2,종중반영료해CDM항목실시시가행적.
Based on a case study of facilitating reforestation for Guangxi section of Pearl River watershed,dynamic cost changes in carbon sequestration under the clean development mechanism(CDM)project and the five afforestation models in tCER(temporary certified emission reduction)and ICER(long-term certified emission reduction)were explored.The results show that tCER costs of the project and five models will decrease gradually,and project cost will reduce from 40.33(￥)/t CO_2 to 13.34(￥)/t CO_2.The ICER costs will be down to the minimum in the terminal of the first commitment period,and project cost will increase from 40.33(￥)/t CO_2 to 105.27(￥)/t CO_2.The costs of L.formosana plus C lanceolata and L.formosana plus P.massoniana will be higher than P.massoniana plus S.superba and P.massoniana plus Quercus sp.,and Eucalyptus sp.will be the lowest cost.The choice of discount rate will impact on cost of the project,Eucalyptus sp.in tCER and L.formosana plus C.lanceolata in lCER,and it is not obvious to P.massoniana plus Quercus sp.in tCER and ICER.The sensitivity of tCER cost to Eucalyptus sp.were also analyzed.It is found that changes in carbon storage per unit area can affect the tCER cost.The net present value of project tCER will be 13.11 (￥)/t CO_2 with timber benefits inthe end,thus suggesting that the implement the CDM project is feasible.