CAJ | 학술논문

利用贵州19个国家基准站1961-2008年的逐日平均气温、最低气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了近48a贵州寒潮天气发生次数的时空分布及环流特征.结果表明:贵州高原寒潮活动各地差异显著,寒潮天气多发区位于威宁和独山,东北部边缘和西南部边缘寒潮天气出现较少;寒潮主要出现在1-4月;贵州地区近48a来寒潮频次呈下降趋势;贵州年寒潮频次在年代际尺度上存在准22a和准13a的周期振荡;M-K检验表明贵州寒潮次数突变特征不明显;在贵州寒潮活动偏多和偏少时期,其环流特征存在着显著的差异.
이용귀주19개국가기준참1961-2008년적축일평균기온、최저기온자료,채용선성경향고계、Mann-Kendall돌변검험、Morlet소파분석등방법,분석료근48a귀주한조천기발생차수적시공분포급배류특정.결과표명:귀주고원한조활동각지차이현저,한조천기다발구위우위저화독산,동북부변연화서남부변연한조천기출현교소;한조주요출현재1-4월;귀주지구근48a래한조빈차정하강추세;귀주년한조빈차재년대제척도상존재준22a화준13a적주기진탕;M-K검험표명귀주한조차수돌변특정불명현;재귀주한조활동편다화편소시기,기배류특정존재착현저적차이.
Based on the daily mean and minimum temperature data in Guizhou Plateau for the period from 1961 to 2008 at 19 observational stations, the temporal and spatial characteristics and circulation characteristics of cold wave occurrence in the recent 48 years were analyzed by using the methods of linear-trend estimate, Mann-Kendall catastorophe test and Morlet analysis. The results indicated that cold wave activities varied in different areas of Guizhou Plateau. They were frequent in Weining and Dushan and rare in the edge of the Northeastern and Southwestern province. Their occurrence was mainly from January to April and there had been a declining trend in the past 48 years. There were periodical variations of qusi-22 years and 13 years in the cold wave activities of Guizhou. M-K test indicated that the abrupt changes of the cold wave activities were not obvious. However, the difference of the circulation characteristics between the active years and quiet years was obvious in Guizhou Plateau.