CAJ | 학술논문

应用灰色理论建立了GM(1,1)模型,对合肥市年用水量进行了预测.对所建模型进行了残差检验、关联度检验、均方差检验和小误差概率检验,精度均满足要求,可以用来预测城市用水量.结合可利用水资源现状,分析了合肥市水资源量的保证程度.结果表明:在未来26年左右,合肥市的用水量将超出水资源供给能力,可能会出现严重的水危机,如果不加以控制,人们的生活生产将会受到影响.提出了城市化过程中水资源合理利用的有益思路.
응용회색이론건립료GM(1,1)모형,대합비시년용수량진행료예측.대소건모형진행료잔차검험、관련도검험、균방차검험화소오차개솔검험,정도균만족요구,가이용래예측성시용수량.결합가이용수자원현상,분석료합비시수자원량적보증정도.결과표명:재미래26년좌우,합비시적용수량장초출수자원공급능력,가능회출현엄중적수위궤,여과불가이공제,인문적생활생산장회수도영향.제출료성시화과정중수자원합리이용적유익사로.
Based on the theory of grey system, this paper establishes GM (1, 1) model for forecasting the water consumption of Hefei. The check-up model residual error text, relational coefficient text, variance text,little probability of error text and the precision of the model are well enough to meet the requirement and prove the feasibility and adaptable of the method. So it can be used to predict urban water demand. Availability of water resources in the status,and the assurance level of water resources in Hefei are analyzed. The result shows that the total water consumption in Hefei will grow unceasingly. Combined with the water supply capability of the city in recent years, the water consumption calculated is more than its supply in the next 26 years. Suggestion is presented for the protection and reasonable using of water resources during the urbanization.