CAJ | 학술논문

构建数学模型对输血残留风险评估是当前实用且有效的方法。根据重复献血者经常参加献血的特点，可运用“重复献血者献血间隔期转阳”模型计算重复献血者的发病率；根据疾病在人群中的流行特点，可运用“现患率随年龄增加”模型计算初次献血者的发病率；根据血液筛查检测窗口期的特点，可运用“残留风险与发病率和窗口期长度相关”模型计算残留风险。本研究联合运用上述3种数学模型，对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)的残留风险进行探讨，并以上海地区献血者资料为实例，在对所有筛查不合格样本进行确认的情况下，评估得出上海地区2007年1月1日至2008年12月31日期间输血传播HCV的残留风险为1∶101 000。利用数学模型的方法评估输血传播HCV的残留风险具有参考价值，上海地区输血传播HCV的残留风险处于较安全的水平。
구건수학모형대수혈잔류풍험평고시당전실용차유효적방법。근거중복헌혈자경상삼가헌혈적특점，가운용“중복헌혈자헌혈간격기전양”모형계산중복헌혈자적발병솔；근거질병재인군중적류행특점，가운용“현환솔수년령증가”모형계산초차헌혈자적발병솔；근거혈액사사검측창구기적특점，가운용“잔류풍험여발병솔화창구기장도상관”모형계산잔류풍험。본연구연합운용상술3충수학모형，대수혈전파병형간염병독(HCV)적잔류풍험진행탐토，병이상해지구헌혈자자료위실례，재대소유사사불합격양본진행학인적정황하，평고득출상해지구2007년1월1일지2008년12월31일기간수혈전파HCV적잔류풍험위1∶101 000。이용수학모형적방법평고수혈전파HCV적잔류풍험구유삼고개치，상해지구수혈전파HCV적잔류풍험처우교안전적수평。
The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of ‘prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai,based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1st,2007 to Dec. 31st,2008 in Shanghai was 1∶101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.