气象
氣象
기상
METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
2010年
2期
81-86
,共6页
降水型泥石流%前期有效雨量%确定性模型%概率性模型
降水型泥石流%前期有效雨量%確定性模型%概率性模型
강수형니석류%전기유효우량%학정성모형%개솔성모형
rainfall-triggered debris flows%effective antecedent rainfall%deterministic model%probability model
在综合凋研泥石流研究现状基础上,总结了降水型泥石流研究进展.从降水资料的使用、泥石流发生区域雨量的估算、分析降水与泥石流关系的模型、环境背景因子的考虑等四个方面分别进行了论述.目前加密雨量观测资料、卫星雷达资料的应用,提高厂泥石流灾害所在小流域实况降水估算精度.由简单地考虑临界雨量发展到考虑前期间接有效雨量、前期直接有效雨量、激发雨强和历时,同时考虑降水类型对泥石流的影响.目前降水和泥石流的关系模型发展为确定性模型和概率性模型.环境因子的考虑向两个方向发展:一种倾向是针对环境背景数据开展更加精细的区划,针对每个区域单元所处的环境背景情况建立降水与泥石流关系模型;另一种发展趋势是利用信息量等模型将环境因子作为降水与泥石流关系模型中的变量.
在綜閤凋研泥石流研究現狀基礎上,總結瞭降水型泥石流研究進展.從降水資料的使用、泥石流髮生區域雨量的估算、分析降水與泥石流關繫的模型、環境揹景因子的攷慮等四箇方麵分彆進行瞭論述.目前加密雨量觀測資料、衛星雷達資料的應用,提高廠泥石流災害所在小流域實況降水估算精度.由簡單地攷慮臨界雨量髮展到攷慮前期間接有效雨量、前期直接有效雨量、激髮雨彊和歷時,同時攷慮降水類型對泥石流的影響.目前降水和泥石流的關繫模型髮展為確定性模型和概率性模型.環境因子的攷慮嚮兩箇方嚮髮展:一種傾嚮是針對環境揹景數據開展更加精細的區劃,針對每箇區域單元所處的環境揹景情況建立降水與泥石流關繫模型;另一種髮展趨勢是利用信息量等模型將環境因子作為降水與泥石流關繫模型中的變量.
재종합조연니석류연구현상기출상,총결료강수형니석류연구진전.종강수자료적사용、니석류발생구역우량적고산、분석강수여니석류관계적모형、배경배경인자적고필등사개방면분별진행료논술.목전가밀우량관측자료、위성뢰체자료적응용,제고엄니석류재해소재소류역실황강수고산정도.유간단지고필림계우량발전도고필전기간접유효우량、전기직접유효우량、격발우강화력시,동시고필강수류형대니석류적영향.목전강수화니석류적관계모형발전위학정성모형화개솔성모형.배경인자적고필향량개방향발전:일충경향시침대배경배경수거개전경가정세적구화,침대매개구역단원소처적배경배경정황건립강수여니석류관계모형;령일충발전추세시이용신식량등모형장배경인자작위강수여니석류관계모형중적변량.
The research status of debris flow at home and abroad is reviewed.On this basis,the research advance of relationship among the debris flow,effective antecedent precipitation and eco-environment factors is briefly summarized.It is discussed from four aspects,i.e.the ways of the use of precipitation,the estimation of precipitation,the analysis model of relation between precipitation and debris,and the eco-environment factor.The applying of intense rain gauge,radar and satellite gauge made the rainfall estimating of debris flow position more precise.The study is developed from the analysis about the impact of the critical rainfall on debris flow to effective antecedent rainfall,rain rate triggered debris flow and the type of precipitation on debris flow.At present,there are deterministic model and probability model which analyze the relationship between the rainfall and the debris flow occurrence.The study of the applying of eco-environment factors developed forward to two directions:one is that the debris flow model is developed in elementary area on the basis of finer definition of geological hazardous region.The other is that the eco-environmental factor is used as one of the variables in the model.Besides,more analyses are needed to solve the problem found in the present debris flow study.