CAJ | 학술논문

旱灾是世界上影响面最广、造成农业损失最大的自然灾害类型,世界近一半的国家干旱严重.中国旱灾频繁,每年旱灾损失占各种自然灾害损失的15%以上,随着人口和农业的快速发展,农业承灾体脆弱性对灾情的放大也在增加.基于灾害系统理论,从致灾因子和耕地承灾体的区域组合角度,在旱灾频发高值区,选择雨养农业、灌溉农业和水田农业为主要承灾体类型,构建了农业旱灾脆弱性生产压力和生活压力,灾前-灾中易损性和灾中-灾后适应性等农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断指标体系.提出脆弱性评价的区域模型,即:雨养农业的易损-适应模型(兴和)、灌溉农业的生产-生活压力模型(邢台)和水田农业的需水-灌水模型(鼎城).基于农业承灾体脆弱性评价,提出制定适应降水变化的波动土地利用结构调整区域政策、建立农业生态-生产范式、建立"水银行"管理机制、建立用水效益和开源节流的评估体系以及加强"截水-抽水-控水"为一体的灌溉系统工程建设,提高灌溉应急能力等对策,以期为农业旱灾的防御和区域粮食安全决策提供科学依据.
한재시세계상영향면최엄、조성농업손실최대적자연재해류형,세계근일반적국가간한엄중.중국한재빈번,매년한재손실점각충자연재해손실적15%이상,수착인구화농업적쾌속발전,농업승재체취약성대재정적방대야재증가.기우재해계통이론,종치재인자화경지승재체적구역조합각도,재한재빈발고치구,선택우양농업、관개농업화수전농업위주요승재체류형,구건료농업한재취약성생산압력화생활압력,재전-재중역손성화재중-재후괄응성등농업한재승재체취약성진단지표체계.제출취약성평개적구역모형,즉:우양농업적역손-괄응모형(흥화)、관개농업적생산-생활압력모형(형태)화수전농업적수수-관수모형(정성).기우농업승재체취약성평개,제출제정괄응강수변화적파동토지이용결구조정구역정책、건립농업생태-생산범식、건립"수은행"관리궤제、건립용수효익화개원절류적평고체계이급가강"절수-추수-공수"위일체적관개계통공정건설,제고관개응급능력등대책,이기위농업한재적방어화구역양식안전결책제공과학의거.
Based on regional combination of the hazard-formation factors and hazard-affected bodies, distributing disciplinarian of the agriculture hazard-affected bodies and the centers of drought disaster in China are found. According to the primary style of hazard-affected bodies, such as the rainfed field (Xinghe County), the irrigated field (Xingtai County) & the paddy field (Dingcheng County),this paper sets up vulnerability identification index system of agriculture drought disaster; establishes regional assessment model of agriculture drought vulnerability, such as the frangibility-adaptability model of the rainfed field, the production-living pressure model of the irrigated field and the water demand-supply model of the paddy field. Taking Xinghe County as a case, agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is also carried. The formation of hazard-affected bodies vulnerability and regional sustainable development is discussed, and some scientific advices for the defense of agriculture drought disaster and disaster mitigation are put forward.