气候变化研究进展
氣候變化研究進展
기후변화연구진전
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
2010年
1期
53-59
,共7页
CO_2减排%情景分析,经济%中国
CO_2減排%情景分析,經濟%中國
CO_2감배%정경분석,경제%중국
CO_2 mitigation%scenario analysis%economy%China
利用国外较为成熟的气候与经济综合评估模型(DICE/RICE),通过调整CO_2排放控制率,对我国2000-2050年的若干CO_2排放情景进行了设定,在保证大气CO_2总量稳定的前提下开展了若干CO_2减排方案下我国CO_2排放量、经济发展水平和效用水平的影响评估.研究结果表明,若干CO_2减排方案都可以使未来200年的全球平均地表温度增量控制在3.2℃的气候安全阈值范围内,都可以有效地保护全球气候安全.当我国到2050年的CO_2排放量从2000年的253%控制为50%时,国内生产总值(GDP)的下降幅度从0.33%增加到12.22%,相对应的效用值的下降幅度从0.00422增加到0.09946,其下降幅度都随CO_2减排额度的加大而增加.为此,我国将要追加621.96亿～13784.73亿美元的气候投资,占GDP的0.19%～10.5%.因此,从最大程度地减少实施减排所需要的气候投资和对我国经济影响的角度出发,我国应该优先选择到2050年CO_2排放量控制为2000年的253%这个方案.
利用國外較為成熟的氣候與經濟綜閤評估模型(DICE/RICE),通過調整CO_2排放控製率,對我國2000-2050年的若榦CO_2排放情景進行瞭設定,在保證大氣CO_2總量穩定的前提下開展瞭若榦CO_2減排方案下我國CO_2排放量、經濟髮展水平和效用水平的影響評估.研究結果錶明,若榦CO_2減排方案都可以使未來200年的全毬平均地錶溫度增量控製在3.2℃的氣候安全閾值範圍內,都可以有效地保護全毬氣候安全.噹我國到2050年的CO_2排放量從2000年的253%控製為50%時,國內生產總值(GDP)的下降幅度從0.33%增加到12.22%,相對應的效用值的下降幅度從0.00422增加到0.09946,其下降幅度都隨CO_2減排額度的加大而增加.為此,我國將要追加621.96億～13784.73億美元的氣候投資,佔GDP的0.19%～10.5%.因此,從最大程度地減少實施減排所需要的氣候投資和對我國經濟影響的角度齣髮,我國應該優先選擇到2050年CO_2排放量控製為2000年的253%這箇方案.
이용국외교위성숙적기후여경제종합평고모형(DICE/RICE),통과조정CO_2배방공제솔,대아국2000-2050년적약간CO_2배방정경진행료설정,재보증대기CO_2총량은정적전제하개전료약간CO_2감배방안하아국CO_2배방량、경제발전수평화효용수평적영향평고.연구결과표명,약간CO_2감배방안도가이사미래200년적전구평균지표온도증량공제재3.2℃적기후안전역치범위내,도가이유효지보호전구기후안전.당아국도2050년적CO_2배방량종2000년적253%공제위50%시,국내생산총치(GDP)적하강폭도종0.33%증가도12.22%,상대응적효용치적하강폭도종0.00422증가도0.09946,기하강폭도도수CO_2감배액도적가대이증가.위차,아국장요추가621.96억～13784.73억미원적기후투자,점GDP적0.19%～10.5%.인차,종최대정도지감소실시감배소수요적기후투자화대아국경제영향적각도출발,아국응해우선선택도2050년CO_2배방량공제위2000년적253%저개방안.
A matured regional dynamic integrated model of climate and the economy (DICE/RICE) was introduced and used to assess the effect of CO_2 mitigation on China's economy. Seven CO_2 emission scenarios during 2000-2050 were designed by adjusting the control rate of CO_2 emission of the model. The CO_2 emissions, economic development and consumption utility of China were assessed on the premise that the total concentration of CO_2 in the atmosphere is constant. The results show that a number of CO_2 alternative policies could all ensure that the increment of global average surface temperature will be below the threshold value of 3.2 ℃, thus effectively protecting the safety of global climate in future 200 years. When China's CO_2 emissions in 2050 decreases from 253% to 50% of the emission quantity in 2000, the decline amplitude of China's GDP will increase from 0.33% to 12.22% in comparison with the scenario without control of CO_2 emission, correspondingly, the decline amplitude of consumption function level will increase from 0.00422 to 0.09946;both the two decline amplitudes distinctively increase with the increase amplitude in the reduction of CO_2 emission. Therefore, China needs to put the additional investment of 62.196-1378.473 billion dollars for the reduction of CO_2 emission, which account for 0.19%-10.5% of the GDP value, respectively. Comprehensive consideration suggests that it is reasonable that China should choose the scenario that China's CO2 emission in 2050 is 2.53 times of that in 2000.
