CAJ | 학술논문

依据1996～2008年耕地面积与粮食产量数据,采用基于粮食安全的耕地需求量预测方法,选取总人口、粮播比例、粮食单产、复种指数和人均粮食年需求量5个指标,分析预测了2020年浙江省耕地需求量。预测结果表明,到2020年全省耕地保有量至少为204.9万公顷,由此可见,基于粮食安全的浙江省耕地保护任务的艰巨性,并提出了耕地资源利用与保护的对策建议。
의거1996～2008년경지면적여양식산량수거,채용기우양식안전적경지수구량예측방법,선취총인구、량파비례、양식단산、복충지수화인균양식년수구량5개지표,분석예측료2020년절강성경지수구량。예측결과표명,도2020년전성경지보유량지소위204.9만공경,유차가견,기우양식안전적절강성경지보호임무적간거성,병제출료경지자원이용여보호적대책건의。
Under the framework of food security,the indicators of population,crop seeding area to grain seeding area ratio,per capita grain demand per year,duplicate index and grain production per unit are introduce to predict the cultivated land demand in 2020 year,which are based on the data of cultivated land acreage and grain production during the period of 1996~2008 year in Zhejiang Province.The result shows that the minimum cultivated land demand is 2.049×104 ha in 2020 year,the constructive suggestion and countermeasures are proposed for the cultivated land protection and usage based on those analyses.