CAJ | 학술논문

本文试图以中小板上市公司为例，建立基于现金流量的企业财务危机预警模型。本文从中小板274家企业中，通过定义假设筛选出24家被定义发生了财务危机的企业，并根据配对原则筛选出另外24家非财务危机的企业，各自挑选出12家分成两组，一组为建模组，用来建立模型，一组为测验组，用来进行检验。本文选出11个基于现金流量的财务指标，进行独立样本T检验，筛选出在危机企业和非危机企业之间具有显著性差异的指标8个，再在这8个指标的基础上建立LOGISTIC模型对企业是否发生危机进行预警，最后用测验组对其准判率进行分析得出结论。
본문시도이중소판상시공사위례，건립기우현금류량적기업재무위궤예경모형。본문종중소판274가기업중，통과정의가설사선출24가피정의발생료재무위궤적기업，병근거배대원칙사선출령외24가비재무위궤적기업，각자도선출12가분성량조，일조위건모조，용래건립모형，일조위측험조，용래진행검험。본문선출11개기우현금류량적재무지표，진행독립양본T검험，사선출재위궤기업화비위궤기업지간구유현저성차이적지표8개，재재저8개지표적기출상건립LOGISTIC모형대기업시부발생위궤진행예경，최후용측험조대기준판솔진행분석득출결론。
This paper aims to establish prediction mod- el of financial crisis based on cash flow, using the cases of listed company in SME board. By the method of definition as- sumption, we choose 24 enterprises of financial crisis and choose another 24 enterprises without financial crisis from 274 SME board by the principle of paring. Then 12 enterpri- ses are pick out respectively from the two volumes and divide them into two groups the modeling group and the testing group. We use eleven financial indexes based on cash flow to make T test on individual samples and draw eight indexes of significant differences between financial crisis enterprises and non-financial crisis enterprises. With these indexes, we es- tablish LOGISTIC model to make prediction on the financial crisis, and test its accuracy rate in the testing group to get the conclusion.