CAJ | 학술논문

利用观测资料对青藏高原热力状况与长江中下游地区梅雨进行统计分析，发现两者存在一定的联系：旱、涝年青藏高原下垫面热力状况存在南北反相特征，即当青藏高原下垫面前冬南侧偏暖(冷)、北侧偏冷(暖)时，对应长江中下游地区梅雨量易偏少(多)。而且这种高原下垫面异常热力状况具有持续性，可以持续维持到夏季。在此基础上，设计了两组敏感性试验，分别改变高原下垫面热力状况，应用NCAR RegCM2区域气候模式进行数值模拟，模拟结果可以较好的验证上述统计事实。
이용관측자료대청장고원열력상황여장강중하유지구매우진행통계분석，발현량자존재일정적련계：한、로년청장고원하점면열력상황존재남북반상특정，즉당청장고원하점면전동남측편난(랭)、북측편랭(난)시，대응장강중하유지구매우량역편소(다)。이차저충고원하점면이상열력상황구유지속성，가이지속유지도하계。재차기출상，설계료량조민감성시험，분별개변고원하점면열력상황，응용NCAR RegCM2구역기후모식진행수치모의，모의결과가이교호적험증상술통계사실。
Based on observation data, the correlation analysis of the Tibetan Plateau thermal condition and Meiyu in the Yangtze River Basin is conducted. The statistic results indicate that the surface thermal condition is correlated with the flood/drought in the Yangtze River Basin. If there exists abnormally warm thermal condition over the southern Tibet , then there will be a flooding summer in the Yangtze River Basin and vice versa. Based on such results, two sensitive experiments are designed by use of the NCAR RegCM2 model, in which the ground temperature of the northern or southern Tibetan Plateau increases or decreases respectively. The experiments simulated the features very well and validated the statistic results.