CAJ | 학술논문

以天津市活断裂探测资料为基础,通过对天津断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性,深部构造、构造应力场与形变场及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了天津北、天津南断裂的活动性与构造特征;利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级一频度关系模型,拟合了天津地区的最大震级上限M_(mu)与a_t/b的关系,用于对区内各断层小区中-弱隐伏活动断层潜在地震最大震级的评估.采用泊松概率模型,估算出天津南断裂未来50～200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率及复发周期等定量参数.
이천진시활단렬탐측자료위기출,통과대천진단렬적지질구조、제사기활동성,심부구조、구조응력장여형변장급지진활동성등적연구,종합판정료천진북、천진남단렬적활동성여구조특정;이용지진지질、역사여현금지진활동성자료,건립료안500a귀산적진급일빈도관계모형,의합료천진지구적최대진급상한M_(mu)여a_t/b적관계,용우대구내각단층소구중-약은복활동단층잠재지진최대진급적평고.채용박송개솔모형,고산출천진남단렬미래50～200a발생지진적최대진급、발생개솔급복발주기등정량삼수.
Based on faults surveying and research data in Tianjin area,through studying tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, deep structure, stress and strain fields and seismicity on the Tianjin Fault, the activity and tectonic features of the fault are determined synthetically. Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and moderm seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model reckoning by 500years is established and the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M_(mu) and a_t/b is fit, which is applied to evaluating potential earthquake's maximum magnitude on moderately and weakly active blind faults in the fault sub-areas of the region. Then Poisson probability model is adopted and quantitative parameters such as the maximum magnitude, occurrence probability, recurrence period of the south Tianjin Fault in the coming 50 ～ 200years are calculated.