CAJ | 학술논문

结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录,在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上,分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性.采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式,对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算,计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程.采用三重嵌套网格,外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域,使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程;第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域,使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程;第三层网格对应小范同的浅水区域,使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程.由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的,应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究.COMCOT模式性能良好,可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究.
결합남해해역적지형조건、지질구조、지진학특정이급역사지진기록,재회고총결국내외학자연구적기출상,분석료남해가능인발지진해소적진원구역,병토론료재아국남해연안발생해소재해적잠재가능성.채용목전재국제상엄범사용적COMCOT해소모식,대마니랍해구적잠재지진인발적해소진행료수치모의계산,계산중포함료유지진삼수도해면초시변형적전환、해소적심수전파과정이급해소적천수전파과정.채용삼중감투망격,외층망격대응우대범위적심수구역,사용구좌표계하적선성공제방정;제이층망격대응중등범위적교천수구역,사용구좌표계하적비선성공제방정;제삼층망격대응소범동적천수구역,사용직각좌표계하적비선성공제방정.유모의계산득도적해소전시분포、근안해면승강강도、사개특정점상해면고도수시간변화등적결과표명,아국남해연안조수해소습격적가능성시존재적,응진일보대남해해소진행감측、예경화연구.COMCOT모식성능량호,가용우대남해잠재지진해소적진일보모의연구.
Based on comprehensive consideration of topography, geological structure, seismological features and historical records, the authors analyze the hazardous tsunamigenic zones in the South China Sea and discuss the possibility of potential tsunami hazards in the region. A tsunami induced by a hypothetical earthquake in the Manila Trench is simulated using a nested 3-layer grid system with high resolution. Each grid area in the grid system can be configured with its own type of coordinate system depending on its coverage, simulation parameters as well as the governing equations in terms of the characteristics at different stages of tsunami propagation. This flexible, nested grid setup allows for a balance between computational accuracy and efficiency. The simulation results, such as the calculated travel time map, maximum surface elevation and water height series at four virtual gauges, indicate that the tsunami hazards could happen on the coasts off South China. Further research is necessary to determine the need for a monitoring system of tsunami in the region.