CAJ | 학술논문

根据宿州市1978～2009年粮食产量相关统计资料,运用灰色模型对宿州市粮食生产预测并进行影响因素灰色关联分析.结果表明：宿州市粮食产量整体呈上升趋势,但中间因气候因素导致较大波动,若措施得当,未来6年粮食产量将逐年增加;9个影响因子中,粮食单产、粮食播种面积、农业生产资料价格及农田水利设施是影响宿州市粮食生产的最重要的因子.
근거숙주시1978～2009년양식산량상관통계자료,운용회색모형대숙주시양식생산예측병진행영향인소회색관련분석.결과표명：숙주시양식산량정체정상승추세,단중간인기후인소도치교대파동,약조시득당,미래6년양식산량장축년증가;9개영향인자중,양식단산、양식파충면적、농업생산자료개격급농전수리설시시영향숙주시양식생산적최중요적인자.
Based on the statistical data at the urban level from 1978 to 2009,grain problem in Suzhou City is discussed in two aspects with the help of the theory and method of grey system.Using the GM（1,1） model,the varying trend of the total grain production from 2010 to 2015 is predicted.The results show that grain yield whole assumes the trend of escalation,but because of some factors cause fluctuation greatly;if the measures are appropriate,grain yield will increase year by year in the future 6 years,the grain yield per unit area,the grain seeding area,the price of agricultural production and the irrigation and water facility are the most important in 9 influence factors.