北京大学学报（医学版）
北京大學學報（醫學版）
북경대학학보（의학판）
JOURNAL OF BEIJING MEDICAL UNIVERSITY(HEALTH SCIENCES)
2010年
2期
221-224
,共4页
预测%模型,统计学%婴儿死亡率%产妇死亡率%儿童死亡率
預測%模型,統計學%嬰兒死亡率%產婦死亡率%兒童死亡率
예측%모형,통계학%영인사망솔%산부사망솔%인동사망솔
Forecasting%Models statistical%Infant mortality%Maternal mortality%Child mortality
目的:预测2020年我国妇幼卫生健康指标.方法:利用1989至2007年我国监测地区的婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率数据,采用时间序列残差自回归分析方法建立预测模型,经统计学检验和评价后再进行预测.结果:分别获得了婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率残差自回归模型,各模型及其参数都通过了统计学检验,回代后平均绝对误差在5%左右,模型的决定系数都超过了90%.结论:根据各自的模型预测结果,2020年我国婴儿死亡率将为6.35‰,5岁以下儿童死亡率为7.37‰,孕产妇死亡率为22.21/10万.
目的:預測2020年我國婦幼衛生健康指標.方法:利用1989至2007年我國鑑測地區的嬰兒死亡率、5歲以下兒童死亡率和孕產婦死亡率數據,採用時間序列殘差自迴歸分析方法建立預測模型,經統計學檢驗和評價後再進行預測.結果:分彆穫得瞭嬰兒死亡率、5歲以下兒童死亡率和孕產婦死亡率殘差自迴歸模型,各模型及其參數都通過瞭統計學檢驗,迴代後平均絕對誤差在5%左右,模型的決定繫數都超過瞭90%.結論:根據各自的模型預測結果,2020年我國嬰兒死亡率將為6.35‰,5歲以下兒童死亡率為7.37‰,孕產婦死亡率為22.21/10萬.
목적:예측2020년아국부유위생건강지표.방법:이용1989지2007년아국감측지구적영인사망솔、5세이하인동사망솔화잉산부사망솔수거,채용시간서렬잔차자회귀분석방법건립예측모형,경통계학검험화평개후재진행예측.결과:분별획득료영인사망솔、5세이하인동사망솔화잉산부사망솔잔차자회귀모형,각모형급기삼수도통과료통계학검험,회대후평균절대오차재5%좌우,모형적결정계수도초과료90%.결론:근거각자적모형예측결과,2020년아국영인사망솔장위6.35‰,5세이하인동사망솔위7.37‰,잉산부사망솔위22.21/10만.
Objective:To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.Methods:Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s,forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method,and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.Re-suits:Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate (IMR),under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and mater-nal mortality (MMR) were found.The models and their parameters passed statistical tests,and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.Conclusion:The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 6.35‰,the U5MR 7.37‰ and the MMR 22.21/100 000.
