CAJ | 학술논문

为避免220kV母线供电区域内负荷转供、停电以及小电源等因素对母线负荷预测的不利影响，提出了一种间接预测母线负荷的方法。首先把母线下网负荷转换成该母线供电区域内的理想用电负荷，再将该理想用电负荷作为历史负荷数据采用系统负荷预测的算法进行预测得到初步预测结果，同时获取待预测日各种影响因素的值，初步预测结果剔除各种影响因素间接预测出母线下网负荷值。实例证明了相对于以母线下网负荷值作为历史数据的直接预测法，该方法的应用对供电区域内含有小电源的母线负荷预测的准确率有着明显的提高。
위피면220kV모선공전구역내부하전공、정전이급소전원등인소대모선부하예측적불리영향，제출료일충간접예측모선부하적방법。수선파모선하망부하전환성해모선공전구역내적이상용전부하，재장해이상용전부하작위역사부하수거채용계통부하예측적산법진행예측득도초보예측결과，동시획취대예측일각충영향인소적치，초보예측결과척제각충영향인소간접예측출모선하망부하치。실예증명료상대우이모선하망부하치작위역사수거적직접예측법，해방법적응용대공전구역내함유소전원적모선부하예측적준학솔유착명현적제고。
To avoid the adverse effects of load transfer, power supply interruption and small power sources in 220 kV power supply region on bus load forecasting, a method to indirectly forecast bus load is proposed. Firstly, the bus-supplied load is transferred into ideal load located in the region supplied by this bus; then regarding this ideal load as historical load data, the bus load is forecasted by system load forecasting algorithm to attain preliminary forecasting result, meanwhile the values of influencing factors in the forecasted day are obtained; finally, discarding various values of influencing factors from the preliminary forecasting result, the bus-supplied load is indirectly forecasted. Case study results show that applying the proposed method to the bus load forecasting under the condition that there are small power sources in the bus-supplied region, the bus load forecasting results are much accurate than those forecasted by direct forecasting method in which the bus-supplied load is taken as historical load data.