CAJ | 학술논문

城市的变化通常呈现平稳发展和跳跃发展两种态势，其间还夹杂着各种规模的城区改造。笔者对影响空间负荷预测(SLF)的不确定性因素进行了详细的分析和归类，并对传统的SLF模型进行了改造使之能够处理城市跳跃发展和城市改造等特殊情况。针对跳跃式发展模型，提出了“事件中心”的概念，并将空间负荷预测分解为基础分布和事件分布的叠加；针对大事件出现时间和位置的不确定性，提出了多方案预测法；针对城市改造模型，提出了小区改造准则，改进了用地最优分配模型，从而解决了城市改造中的不确定性问题。
성시적변화통상정현평은발전화도약발전량충태세，기간환협잡착각충규모적성구개조。필자대영향공간부하예측(SLF)적불학정성인소진행료상세적분석화귀류，병대전통적SLF모형진행료개조사지능구처리성시도약발전화성시개조등특수정황。침대도약식발전모형，제출료“사건중심”적개념，병장공간부하예측분해위기출분포화사건분포적첩가；침대대사건출현시간화위치적불학정성，제출료다방안예측법；침대성시개조모형，제출료소구개조준칙，개진료용지최우분배모형，종이해결료성시개조중적불학정성문제。
The city development usually falls into two categories: smooth growth due to the continuous increase in economics, population and living standard, and abrupt change due to huge mount of outside investment or big project planned for the future, which once implemented the spatial load distribution may change significantly. This paper proposes a new SLF method to deal with the uncertainty in spatial load forecasting. Firstly, a new concept of Event Center is put forward to reflect the effect of big project on load distribution. The whole load distribution can be seen as an overlap of load distributions resulted from event centers and urban pole. In this paper, the forecasting procedure is divided into two steps: firstly, a land-use based SLF method is used to predict a basic distribution, which reflects the smooth trend in load growth. Then, an event distribution can be forecasted using the concept of event center, which includes uncertainties.