CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨江苏省各县(区)HIV感染者空间分布规律,试建立疫情预测模型.方法建立江苏省各县(市)HIV感染者人数疫情数据库,根据地理信息分析HIV感染者相关的地理特征,对HIV感染者人数进行趋势分析、空间自相关分析、空间线性回归分析.结果 (1)江苏省HIV感染者总体呈随机分布,但局部地区存在感染者聚集现象,发现南京市城区的感染者人数表现为负自相关,苏州和无锡市城区两地为正自相关.铜山县、吴江市、南京市浦口区和城区、溧水县、无锡市城区、苏州市城区为江苏省HIV感染者高度聚集的热点区域.(2)建立江苏省HIV感染者疫情分布图和趋势分析图,全省HIV感染者分布在地理东西方向上的变化不大,南北方向上,苏南地区疫情远远比苏北和苏中地区严重.(3)运用最小二乘法进行HIV感染者人数的空间线性回归分析,江苏省HIV感染者人数与地理经纬度之间的线性回归关系无统计学意义(t=-1.045 103,P=0.299 904;t=-1.443 668,P=0.153 714).结论应根据江苏省HIV感染者空间分布特点,制定预防和控制疫情传播的措施.
목적 탐토강소성각현(구)HIV감염자공간분포규률,시건립역정예측모형.방법 건립강소성각현(시)HIV감염자인수역정수거고,근거지리신식분석HIV감염자상관적지리특정,대HIV감염자인수진행추세분석、공간자상관분석、공간선성회귀분석.결과 (1)강소성HIV감염자총체정수궤분포,단국부지구존재감염자취집현상,발현남경시성구적감염자인수표현위부자상관,소주화무석시성구량지위정자상관.동산현、오강시、남경시포구구화성구、률수현、무석시성구、소주시성구위강소성HIV감염자고도취집적열점구역.(2)건립강소성HIV감염자역정분포도화추세분석도,전성HIV감염자분포재지리동서방향상적변화불대,남북방향상,소남지구역정원원비소북화소중지구엄중.(3)운용최소이승법진행HIV감염자인수적공간선성회귀분석,강소성HIV감염자인수여지리경위도지간적선성회귀관계무통계학의의(t=-1.045 103,P=0.299 904;t=-1.443 668,P=0.153 714).결론 응근거강소성HIV감염자공간분포특점,제정예방화공제역정전파적조시.
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of AIDS in every city of Jiangsu province, trying to describe the geographic characteristics of AIDS and to develop a prediction model.Methods Numbers of patients in Jiangsu province were collected, to establish the database for the geographic information system, then setting up a 'risk map' of the disease. Spatial, autocorrelation.Linear spatial analyses were used to study the patients' numbers. Results (1)Results from the autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of AIDS was clustered at some places and was at random on the whole. The results also indicated that the distribution of AIDS in Nanjing was of negative correlation, while that in Suzhou and Wuxi were of positive correlation but in Tongshan, Wujiang, Pukou, Nanjing, Lishui, Wuxi and Suzhou showed seven locations of clusters with disease was more severe in the southern than in the northern parts of Jiangsu province. (3)Ordinary Least Squares method was finally used in the linear spatial regression and the results were: t=-1.045 103 (P=0.299 904); t=-1.443 668 (P=0.153 714) respectively. Conclusion According to the feature spatial distribution of the disease, effective measures should be taken to prevent and to keep the prevalence of AIDS under control.