CAJ | 학술논문

目前水库污染问题严重,而溶解氧是表征水体受污染程度和生态环境好坏的重要指标.介绍了ARIMA模型,以于桥水库三个监测站点1999～2005年的溶解氧含量为基础,运用季节ARIMA模型进行分析,预测2006年各监测站点的溶解氧含量,经与实际数据验证,说明该方法对于桥水库溶解氧浓度预测效果较好.
목전수고오염문제엄중,이용해양시표정수체수오염정도화생태배경호배적중요지표.개소료ARIMA모형,이우교수고삼개감측참점1999～2005년적용해양함량위기출,운용계절ARIMA모형진행분석,예측2006년각감측참점적용해양함량,경여실제수거험증,설명해방법대우교수고용해양농도예측효과교호.
The reservoir pollution problem is serious at present, and DO concentration is an important index to water quality and ecological environment. The seasonal ARIMA model was used to analyze Yuqiao Reservoir's DO concentration in three monitoring sites based on the date from 1999-2005, and to predicate the DO content of each monitoring site in 2006. The results showed that this method was able to well-describe the changes in DO of the reservoir.