气象
氣象
기상
METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
2009年
5期
112-119
,共8页
中期预报性能%天气学检验%对比分析
中期預報性能%天氣學檢驗%對比分析
중기예보성능%천기학검험%대비분석
the performance of medium-range weather forecasting%synoptic verification%contrast and analysis
对2008年12月至2009年2月T639、ECMWF、日本模式的中期预报性能进行了检验和对比分析.结果表明:3种模式对大气环流的演变和调整、850hPa温度升降变化趋势均有较强的预报能力,其中尤以ECMWF模式预报误差最小.3种模式对重大灾害性、转折性天气过程也有很好的指示性能,较成功地预报了3次全国性寒潮天气过程、长江中下游地区持续阴雨天气过程的大气环流形势特征及主要影响系统.
對2008年12月至2009年2月T639、ECMWF、日本模式的中期預報性能進行瞭檢驗和對比分析.結果錶明:3種模式對大氣環流的縯變和調整、850hPa溫度升降變化趨勢均有較彊的預報能力,其中尤以ECMWF模式預報誤差最小.3種模式對重大災害性、轉摺性天氣過程也有很好的指示性能,較成功地預報瞭3次全國性寒潮天氣過程、長江中下遊地區持續陰雨天氣過程的大氣環流形勢特徵及主要影響繫統.
대2008년12월지2009년2월T639、ECMWF、일본모식적중기예보성능진행료검험화대비분석.결과표명:3충모식대대기배류적연변화조정、850hPa온도승강변화추세균유교강적예보능력,기중우이ECMWF모식예보오차최소.3충모식대중대재해성、전절성천기과정야유흔호적지시성능,교성공지예보료3차전국성한조천기과정、장강중하유지구지속음우천기과정적대기배류형세특정급주요영향계통.
It was verified and compared that the performance of T639, ECMWF and Japan model about their medium-range forecasting during Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009. The result shows that the three models have good performances for the evolvement and adjustment of atmospheric circulation situation in Asia middle and high latitude area, and also for the temperature trends of 850hPa. The prediction error of ECMWF model is minimal in that of the three models. They all show significant indication to forecast the transition and disaster weather processes, and have successfully predicted the atmospheric circulation situation and main effecting synoptic systems of the three cold wave processes on a national scale, and continuous rainfall weather process occurring in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River.
