国际医学寄生虫病杂志
國際醫學寄生蟲病雜誌
국제의학기생충병잡지
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MEDICAL PARASITIC DISEASES
2010年
3期
156-159
,共4页
夏志贵%周水森%杨曼尼%王漪%房文
夏誌貴%週水森%楊曼尼%王漪%房文
하지귀%주수삼%양만니%왕의%방문
疟疾%监测点监测%评价%灰色关联分析
瘧疾%鑑測點鑑測%評價%灰色關聯分析
학질%감측점감측%평개%회색관련분석
Malaria%Sentinel surveillance%Evaluation%Grey relational analysis
目的 评价国家监测点在疟疾发病监测中的作用. 方法 分别以全国,监测点所在省(自治区、直辖市)和县(市、区)以及三类不同地区监测点所在省(自治区、直辖市)和县(市、区)2005-2008年的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列(X0),相应的监测点疟疾发病网络直报数据(X1)和监测点监测数据(X2)为比较序列,应用灰色关联分析方法,计算参考序列与比较序列间的灰色关联度(γOi),并排列灰关联序. 结果 分别以全国以及监测点所在省(自治区、直辖市)和县(市、区)的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列时,灰关联序为γ01(0.6112)<γ02(0.7329)、γ01(0.6091)<γ02(0.7304)和γ01(0.6523)<γ02(0.7990);在三类地区分别以监测点所在省(自治区、直辖市)和县(市、区)的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列时,疟疾发病率较高地区的灰关联序为γ01(0.6163)<γ02(0.7518)和γ01(0.6766)<γ02(0.8267),疟疾发病不稳定地区的灰关联序为γ01(0.6563)>γ02(0.6495)和γ01(0.5986)<γ02(0.6074),疟疾发病率较低地区的灰关联序为γ01(0.6282)>γ02(0.6190)和γ01(0.5979)>γ02(0.5705).结论 总体上,监测点监测数据序列与参考序列的动态关系更接近,国家监测点监测能较好地反映疟疾年发病趋势.
目的 評價國傢鑑測點在瘧疾髮病鑑測中的作用. 方法 分彆以全國,鑑測點所在省(自治區、直轄市)和縣(市、區)以及三類不同地區鑑測點所在省(自治區、直轄市)和縣(市、區)2005-2008年的瘧疾髮病年報數據為參攷序列(X0),相應的鑑測點瘧疾髮病網絡直報數據(X1)和鑑測點鑑測數據(X2)為比較序列,應用灰色關聯分析方法,計算參攷序列與比較序列間的灰色關聯度(γOi),併排列灰關聯序. 結果 分彆以全國以及鑑測點所在省(自治區、直轄市)和縣(市、區)的瘧疾髮病年報數據為參攷序列時,灰關聯序為γ01(0.6112)<γ02(0.7329)、γ01(0.6091)<γ02(0.7304)和γ01(0.6523)<γ02(0.7990);在三類地區分彆以鑑測點所在省(自治區、直轄市)和縣(市、區)的瘧疾髮病年報數據為參攷序列時,瘧疾髮病率較高地區的灰關聯序為γ01(0.6163)<γ02(0.7518)和γ01(0.6766)<γ02(0.8267),瘧疾髮病不穩定地區的灰關聯序為γ01(0.6563)>γ02(0.6495)和γ01(0.5986)<γ02(0.6074),瘧疾髮病率較低地區的灰關聯序為γ01(0.6282)>γ02(0.6190)和γ01(0.5979)>γ02(0.5705).結論 總體上,鑑測點鑑測數據序列與參攷序列的動態關繫更接近,國傢鑑測點鑑測能較好地反映瘧疾年髮病趨勢.
목적 평개국가감측점재학질발병감측중적작용. 방법 분별이전국,감측점소재성(자치구、직할시)화현(시、구)이급삼류불동지구감측점소재성(자치구、직할시)화현(시、구)2005-2008년적학질발병년보수거위삼고서렬(X0),상응적감측점학질발병망락직보수거(X1)화감측점감측수거(X2)위비교서렬,응용회색관련분석방법,계산삼고서렬여비교서렬간적회색관련도(γOi),병배렬회관련서. 결과 분별이전국이급감측점소재성(자치구、직할시)화현(시、구)적학질발병년보수거위삼고서렬시,회관련서위γ01(0.6112)<γ02(0.7329)、γ01(0.6091)<γ02(0.7304)화γ01(0.6523)<γ02(0.7990);재삼류지구분별이감측점소재성(자치구、직할시)화현(시、구)적학질발병년보수거위삼고서렬시,학질발병솔교고지구적회관련서위γ01(0.6163)<γ02(0.7518)화γ01(0.6766)<γ02(0.8267),학질발병불은정지구적회관련서위γ01(0.6563)>γ02(0.6495)화γ01(0.5986)<γ02(0.6074),학질발병솔교저지구적회관련서위γ01(0.6282)>γ02(0.6190)화γ01(0.5979)>γ02(0.5705).결론 총체상,감측점감측수거서렬여삼고서렬적동태관계경접근,국가감측점감측능교호지반영학질년발병추세.
Objective To evaluate the role of national sentinel surveillance on malaria trend. Methods The number (X0) of malaria cases of the surveillance provinces, counties, the whole country, and the surveillance provinces and counties broken down by 3 different areas,from annual reports in 2005-2008, were determined as the reference sequences and those of national sentinel sites from the web-based reporting system ( X1) and sentinel surveillance database (X2 ) as the comparative sequences accordingly, then the grey relational grades ( γOi) were calculated and sorted. Results Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the whole country, the surveillance provinces and counties as reference sequences, the grey relational grades were γ01 (0.6112) <γ02(0.7329) ,γ01 (0.6091) <γ02(0.7304) and γ01(0.6523) <γ02(0.7990) respectively. Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the surveillance provinces and counties by different areas as reference sequences, the grey relational grades in hyper-endemic areas were γ01 (0. 6163) < γ02 (0.7518) and γ01 (0.6766) <γ02(0. 8267) respectively. While they were γ01 (0. 6563) >γ02 (0. 6495) and γ01(0.5986) < γ02(0.6074) respectively in unstable-endemic areas, γ01 (0.6282) > γ02(0. 6190) and γ01 (0.5979) >γ02(0.5705) respectively in sporadic-endemic areas. Conclusion In general, the comparative sequences of national sentinel surveillance data were closer to the reference sequences, and the national sentinel surveillance could better reflect the malaria trend.
