CAJ | 학술논문

新疆吐鲁番盆地是中国气候最干旱、水资源最紧缺的地区之一,农业用水完全依赖于山区径流和地下水的灌溉.研究在气候变化背景下的参考作物蒸散量的变化,对制定科学合理的水资源管理技术方案具有重要意义.根据吐鲁番地区4个气象台站1959-2007年的历史气候资料以及联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算各地逐年参考作物蒸散量,采用线性回归、Morlet小波和Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,分析近49a各站年平均气温、降水量、日照时数、年平均风速和空气相对湿度等气候要素以及年参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势和变化特征,据此分析参考作物蒸散量变化的气候成因.结果表明:①近49a吐鲁番地区年平均气温和空气相对湿度呈升高趋势,日照时数和年平均风速呈减小的趋势,降水量变化不明显;②年参考作物蒸散量与上述各气候要素均具有较好的相关关系(p＜0.1),其中与年平均风速、空气相对湿度、降水量和平均气温的相关性最为密切(p＜0.01).受上述各气候要素变化的综合影响,近49a吐鲁番地区的参考作物蒸散量总体呈明显的减小趋势(P＜0.01),这对降低农作物需水量和农田灌溉量具有重要影响;③突变检测表明,吐鲁番地区年平均气温在1970年发生了突变性升高,年平均风速在1965年发生了突变性减小,参考作物蒸散量在1968年发生了突变性减小,其它气候要素未发生突变;④各气候要素和参考作物蒸散量分别存在准2～8a的年际尺度和16～24a的年代际尺度的周期性变化.
신강토로번분지시중국기후최간한、수자원최긴결적지구지일,농업용수완전의뢰우산구경류화지하수적관개.연구재기후변화배경하적삼고작물증산량적변화,대제정과학합리적수자원관리기술방안구유중요의의.근거토로번지구4개기상태참1959-2007년적역사기후자료이급연합국량농조직(FAO)추천적Penman-Monteith공식계산각지축년삼고작물증산량,채용선성회귀、Morlet소파화Mann-Kendall돌변검측등방법,분석근49a각참년평균기온、강수량、일조시수、년평균풍속화공기상대습도등기후요소이급년삼고작물증산량적변화추세화변화특정,거차분석삼고작물증산량변화적기후성인.결과표명:①근49a토로번지구년평균기온화공기상대습도정승고추세,일조시수화년평균풍속정감소적추세,강수량변화불명현;②년삼고작물증산량여상술각기후요소균구유교호적상관관계(p＜0.1),기중여년평균풍속、공기상대습도、강수량화평균기온적상관성최위밀절(p＜0.01).수상술각기후요소변화적종합영향,근49a토로번지구적삼고작물증산량총체정명현적감소추세(P＜0.01),저대강저농작물수수량화농전관개량구유중요영향;③돌변검측표명,토로번지구년평균기온재1970년발생료돌변성승고,년평균풍속재1965년발생료돌변성감소,삼고작물증산량재1968년발생료돌변성감소,기타기후요소미발생돌변;④각기후요소화삼고작물증산량분별존재준2～8a적년제척도화16～24a적년대제척도적주기성변화.
Turpan Basin in Xinjiang is one of the regions of China's most arid climate and scarce water resource. Agriculture is totally dependent on mountain water runoff and groundwater irrigation. The research on reference crop evapotranspiration changes under the climate change background in the development of scientific and rational management of water resource technology program is of great significance. Based on the historical climate data of four meteorological stations from 1959 to 2007 in the Turpan Areas, the Penman-Monteith formula recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration. The annual average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity and change trends and characteristics of the year's reference crop evapotranspiration in the last 49 years for each station were analyzed, by using linear regression, Morlet Wavelet and the Mann-Kendall mutation detection methods. The results showed that the average air temperature and relative humidity increased in the past 49 years in the Turpan Areas, while the sunshine hours and annual average wind speed decreased. But the precipitation did not change significantly. The reference crop evapotranspiration was closely related to the climate conditions (p < 0. 1 ) , while it was positively related to the annual average wind speed, air relative humidity, rainfall and mean temperature ( p <0. 01 ) . The overall reference crop evapotranspiration in the last 49 years in the Turpan Areas decreased ( P < 0. 01). This would be important to reduce the crop water requirement and irrigation volume. The results by mutation examination showed that the mutant increase of the annual average temperature was in 1970 in Turpan region, while the mutant decrease of the annual average wind speed was in 1965. The mutant decrease of the reference crop evapotranspiration was in 1968. All of the climate elements and reference crop evapotranspiration had a quasi 2 to 8 years periodic change at the inter-annual scale and 16 to 24 years periodic change at the inter-decade scale.