CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于火灾事故的发生受多种复杂因素的影响,并且具有较大的随机性和波动性的特点,笔者等将灰色模型和马尔可夫模型相结合,建立火灾事故的灰色-马尔可夫模型,利用灰色模型的灰色性和马尔可夫模型的随机性来体现各自的优点,并运用该模型对全国农村火灾事故进行预测.实际应用表明,灰色-马尔可夫模型的预测精度明显高于灰色模型的预测精度,完全能满足预测精度的要求,可以较好地用于火灾事故的预测.
감우화재사고적발생수다충복잡인소적영향,병차구유교대적수궤성화파동성적특점,필자등장회색모형화마이가부모형상결합,건립화재사고적회색-마이가부모형,이용회색모형적회색성화마이가부모형적수궤성래체현각자적우점,병운용해모형대전국농촌화재사고진행예측.실제응용표명,회색-마이가부모형적예측정도명현고우회색모형적예측정도,완전능만족예측정도적요구,가이교호지용우화재사고적예측.
The occurrence of fire accidents is influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteris-tics of random and fluctuation, so grey model and Markov model are combined together to establish a new Grey-Markov model in this paper. The paper adopts grey model and Markov model to show grey feature and random sepa-rately, at last the model is used to predict fire accidents in countryside. The result shows the forecast precision of Grey-Markov model is higher than the forecast precision of grey model, the model can satisfy the demand in forecast precision, and it can be used for fire accidents forecast.