CAJ | 학술논문

基于1992～2006年中国经济发展和环境污染事故时序数据,建立了中国经济发展和环境污染事故发生的计量模型,以此来分析中国环境安全状态的发展阶段与趋势.结果表明,中国环境污染事故频数与经济增长之间呈现倒"N"型波浪式的EKC特征.环境污染事故频数、水污染事故频数、大气污染事故频数随着人均GDP的快速提高,先下降、后上升、再下降,但还会出现反复.环境污染事故的发生不同于环境污染物的排放,不是经济发展过程中的必然产物,但是却具有非常大的不确定性和危害性,必须利用先进的政策、制度和技术,才可以有效减少污染事故的发生.
기우1992～2006년중국경제발전화배경오염사고시서수거,건립료중국경제발전화배경오염사고발생적계량모형,이차래분석중국배경안전상태적발전계단여추세.결과표명,중국배경오염사고빈수여경제증장지간정현도"N"형파랑식적EKC특정.배경오염사고빈수、수오염사고빈수、대기오염사고빈수수착인균GDP적쾌속제고,선하강、후상승、재하강,단환회출현반복.배경오염사고적발생불동우배경오염물적배방,불시경제발전과정중적필연산물,단시각구유비상대적불학정성화위해성,필수이용선진적정책、제도화기술,재가이유효감소오염사고적발생.
The econometric model between economic growth and environmental pollution accident in China was established to identify the phase of environmental safety and its trend,based on the time series data from 1992 to 2006.The results showed that the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth shaped as an inverted-N curve of EKC in China.Frequencies of environmental pollution accidents,water pollution accidents and air pollution accidents would first decline,and increase,and then decline,with the rapid increase of GDP per capita.The trend could appear repeatedly.Different from that of emissions discharge,the occurrence of pollution accidents is not inevitable during the process of economic development,but of high uncertainty and large damage.Thus,effective policies and advanced technologies are suggested to reduce the environmental pollution accidents.