CAJ | 학술논문

介绍了SWAT2005模型参数敏感性分析和自动率定模块的原理,并在新疆玛纳斯河流域中进行应用,通过敏感性分析及参数率定前后的结果对比,证明该模块对模型应用的重要性.根据LH-OAT敏感性分析法,辨析出影响玛纳斯河流域径流模拟结果精度的主要参数因子:积雪温度滞后因子(Timp)和基流回退系数(Alpha_Bf).根据SCE参数自动率定法,确定出对径流模拟结果影响较大的11个参数值,并采用连续5年的实测日径流数据对模型进行了验证.结果表明:模型对日流量模拟的相对误差在模型校准期和验证期均小于20%,相关系数R~2高于0.8,Nash-Suttcliffe系数Ens高于0.7,SWAT模型在玛纳斯河流域产流的模拟结果良好,值得进一步推广.
개소료SWAT2005모형삼수민감성분석화자동솔정모괴적원리,병재신강마납사하류역중진행응용,통과민감성분석급삼수솔정전후적결과대비,증명해모괴대모형응용적중요성.근거LH-OAT민감성분석법,변석출영향마납사하류역경류모의결과정도적주요삼수인자:적설온도체후인자(Timp)화기류회퇴계수(Alpha_Bf).근거SCE삼수자동솔정법,학정출대경류모의결과영향교대적11개삼수치,병채용련속5년적실측일경류수거대모형진행료험증.결과표명:모형대일류량모의적상대오차재모형교준기화험증기균소우20%,상관계수R~2고우0.8,Nash-Suttcliffe계수Ens고우0.7,SWAT모형재마납사하류역산류적모의결과량호,치득진일보추엄.
This paper introduced the principle of sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration modules,and it was applied in Manasi watershed. Throngh the comparison of fore-and-aft result and the sensitivity analysis,it was proved that these modules are important for application. According to LH-OAT method,the main parameters which affected the simulated value in this watershed were the Timp and Alpha_Bf. According to SCE method,there were 11 ascertained parameters which had a significant influence on the daily runoff simulation,and the model was validated with 5 years of actual measured data. the results indicated that the relative error of the simulation results in the period of calibration and validation was under 20%,correlation coefficients R~2 exceeded 0.8,Nash-suttcliffes coefficient exceeded 0.7. Therefore,the application of SWAT model in typical watershed in the Manasi was successful and reasonable,and the model deserves to be extended further.