中国农业科技导报
中國農業科技導報
중국농업과기도보
REVIEW OF CHINA AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2009年
2期
78-83
,共6页
气候变化%极端高温%中稻生产%长江流域
氣候變化%極耑高溫%中稻生產%長江流域
기후변화%겁단고온%중도생산%장강류역
climate change%the maximum temperature%midseason rice production%the Yangtze River Basin
为了分析中稻花期高温的变化及其对中稻产量的影响,利用1991-2005年气象统计数据及对7个省份中稻生产数据的描述性统计分析,建立了中稻生产定量分析函数模型,每个方程中除了包含传统的生产投入变量、技术进步变量等外,还分别包含7种类型的气温变量.结果表明,21世纪以来,长江流域中稻花期的极端高温呈升高趋势,并伴随较大幅度的波动,且各地区增长幅度存在较大差异;当极端高温处于35℃到39℃之间,中稻的平均产量与35℃以下情况无显著差异,但当极端高温达39℃以上时,平均产量会显著降低13%.
為瞭分析中稻花期高溫的變化及其對中稻產量的影響,利用1991-2005年氣象統計數據及對7箇省份中稻生產數據的描述性統計分析,建立瞭中稻生產定量分析函數模型,每箇方程中除瞭包含傳統的生產投入變量、技術進步變量等外,還分彆包含7種類型的氣溫變量.結果錶明,21世紀以來,長江流域中稻花期的極耑高溫呈升高趨勢,併伴隨較大幅度的波動,且各地區增長幅度存在較大差異;噹極耑高溫處于35℃到39℃之間,中稻的平均產量與35℃以下情況無顯著差異,但噹極耑高溫達39℃以上時,平均產量會顯著降低13%.
위료분석중도화기고온적변화급기대중도산량적영향,이용1991-2005년기상통계수거급대7개성빈중도생산수거적묘술성통계분석,건립료중도생산정량분석함수모형,매개방정중제료포함전통적생산투입변량、기술진보변량등외,환분별포함7충류형적기온변량.결과표명,21세기이래,장강류역중도화기적겁단고온정승고추세,병반수교대폭도적파동,차각지구증장폭도존재교대차이;당겁단고온처우35℃도39℃지간,중도적평균산량여35℃이하정황무현저차이,단당겁단고온체39℃이상시,평균산량회현저강저13%.
The main target of the paper is exploiting the change of the maximum temperature during midseason rice flowering period, and its impact on the yield of midseason rice. Based on the statistical data on weather in 7 provinces during 15 years, the midseason rice function models are built up, with temperature variables included. Our result shows that the maximum temperatures during midseason rice flowering periods have increasing trend with a substantial fluctuation, with great differences among regions. When the maximum temperature is between 35℃ to 39℃, the average yield of midseason rice will not change significantly, but if the maximum temperature is above 39℃, the average yield of mid-season rice will decrease by 13 percent.
