CAJ | 학술논문

利用清江流域52个自动雨量站资料,对2007—2010年出现的49次强降水过程,用过程面雨量、降雨时长和连续无降雨日数建立清江水布垭水库洪峰流量短期预报模型,按照国家行业标准评定该模型精度等级为乙级,可以运用于业务预报。在实时预报中,利用雨量预报值代入水文预报模型进行预报,从而延长了洪峰预见期。经2011年的预报试验,其效果较好,对水库的泄洪、蓄水、发电等调度工作具有很好的参考价值。
이용청강류역52개자동우량참자료,대2007—2010년출현적49차강강수과정,용과정면우량、강우시장화련속무강우일수건립청강수포오수고홍봉류량단기예보모형,안조국가행업표준평정해모형정도등급위을급,가이운용우업무예보。재실시예보중,이용우량예보치대입수문예보모형진행예보,종이연장료홍봉예견기。경2011년적예보시험,기효과교호,대수고적설홍、축수、발전등조도공작구유흔호적삼고개치。
With 52 automatic rainfall stations’data of Qingjiang basin,process surface-rainfall,rainfall duration and consecutive days without rain based on the 49 processes of heavy rain from 2007 to 2010,a model of short-term forecast for the peak flow of Qingjiang Shuibuya Reservoir was established.According to the national industry standard the precision of the model was judged Class B,and the model could be applied to operation forecast.During the real-time forecast,using the model with rainfall predicted value,it can extend the forecast lead time of flood peak.In 2011,the effect of forecast experiment is better and is a good reference to schedule work of the reservoir,like flood discharge,water storage,and power generation.