CAJ | 학술논문

以俄罗斯1994年第1季度至2009年第4季度的进出口贸易季度数据为样本,通过Engle＆Granger协整检验发现俄罗斯的季度出口与进口之间存在协整关系,这表明虽然俄罗斯的贸易盈余一直在上升,但却并没有失控,仅仅是一种短期失衡现象。而误差修正模型（ECM）显示,俄罗斯对外贸易的自我修正的短期动态机制是存在的。
이아라사1994년제1계도지2009년제4계도적진출구무역계도수거위양본,통과Engle＆Granger협정검험발현아라사적계도출구여진구지간존재협정관계,저표명수연아라사적무역영여일직재상승,단각병몰유실공,부부시일충단기실형현상。이오차수정모형（ECM）현시,아라사대외무역적자아수정적단기동태궤제시존재적。
Choosing the quarterly data of Russian import and export trade from the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2009 as samples,we find the existence of co-integration relationship between the quarterly data of Russian import and its export trade by Engle Granger co-integration test.This shows that the trade surplus of Russia is still under control despite of its rising trend,and it is merely a short-term imbalance phenomenon.Error Correction Model shows that the short-term dynamic mechanism of self-repair of Russian foreign trade does exist.