“利用MAE寻求最小误差的平滑系数α”之质疑
“이용MAE심구최소오차적평활계수α”지질의
Querying the Validity of “Use MAE to Calculate the Level and Smooth a Coefficient of Least Error”
  • 万方数据
    华东船舶工业学院学报 화동선박공업학원학보
    JOURNAL OF EAST CHINA SHIPBUILDING INSTITUTE
    2001年 3期 88-91 ,共4页

    张小麟%张雪琴

    장소린%장설금

    经营预测%指数平滑法%绝对差(MAE)%权重%级数 經營預測%指數平滑法%絕對差(MAE)%權重%級數
    경영예측%지수평활법%절대차(MAE)%권중%급수
    一次指数平滑法作为一种预测方法，对于平滑系数的选取通常是利用绝对差(均方差)进行误差估计，令人颇为困惑。本文旨在进一步探究平滑系数选取的理论依据，避免其实际应用中的误导。
    일차지수평활법작위일충예측방법，대우평활계수적선취통상시이용절대차(균방차)진행오차고계，령인파위곤혹。본문지재진일보탐구평활계수선취적이론의거，피면기실제응용중적오도。
    Level and smooth method of the first degree index is a forecasting method.As far as selection of level and smooth coefficient is concerned,the method is to make use of absolute error(mean square deviation) to calculate the error,which is puzzling.This paper is to study the theoretical basis of the selection of level and smooth coefficient in order to avoid its misunderstanding in practical application.
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