中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2008年
12期
866-869
,共4页
段松%郭浩岩%庞琳%袁建华%贾曼红%项丽芬%叶润华%杨跃诚%陆继云%罗巍%孙江平
段鬆%郭浩巖%龐琳%袁建華%賈曼紅%項麗芬%葉潤華%楊躍誠%陸繼雲%囉巍%孫江平
단송%곽호암%방림%원건화%가만홍%항려분%협윤화%양약성%륙계운%라외%손강평
获得性免疫缺陷综合征%模型,理论%危险因素
穫得性免疫缺陷綜閤徵%模型,理論%危險因素
획득성면역결함종합정%모형,이론%위험인소
Acquired immunodefieiency syndrome%Models,theoretical%Risk factors
目的 对云南省德宏州当前艾滋病疫情的传播模式做出初步判断.方法 对德宏州1989-2007年艾滋病监测(检测)覆盖人群数量及其构成比、报告的感染者(患者)的流行病学资料应用SAS 8.0软件进行分析.将德宏州1989-2007年的人口规模、高危人群规模及高危行为数据、2000-2007年出生性别比、总和生育率等人口学数据带入模型,对德宏州艾滋病传播模式进行判断.结果 病例报告中经性途径感染的比例2005年为39.1%,2006年为46.9%,2007年1月1 日-9月20日的1636例感染者(患者)中约52%为经性途径传播.对1989-2007年监测(检测)人数的构成比标化后结果显示,吸毒人群中艾滋病病毒(HIV)阳性检出率呈下降趋势,而经性途径感染的HIV感染者呈上升趋势.亚洲艾滋病流行模型(asian epidemic model,AEM)显示,2005-2007年新发感染者中通过性途径感染的比例分别为50.6%、52.3%、52.7%,经吸毒感染人数比例分别为48.9%、47.2%、46.7%.Workbook模型显示,2007年成人现存活的HIV感染者中,经注射吸毒感染的占50.3%,经性途径感染的占48.4%.结论 德宏州艾滋病疫情经吸毒传播快速上升势头得到初步遏制,艾滋病的传播模式已由经静脉注射吸毒为主转换为经性途径和注射吸毒传播两种途径并重的局面.
目的 對雲南省德宏州噹前艾滋病疫情的傳播模式做齣初步判斷.方法 對德宏州1989-2007年艾滋病鑑測(檢測)覆蓋人群數量及其構成比、報告的感染者(患者)的流行病學資料應用SAS 8.0軟件進行分析.將德宏州1989-2007年的人口規模、高危人群規模及高危行為數據、2000-2007年齣生性彆比、總和生育率等人口學數據帶入模型,對德宏州艾滋病傳播模式進行判斷.結果 病例報告中經性途徑感染的比例2005年為39.1%,2006年為46.9%,2007年1月1 日-9月20日的1636例感染者(患者)中約52%為經性途徑傳播.對1989-2007年鑑測(檢測)人數的構成比標化後結果顯示,吸毒人群中艾滋病病毒(HIV)暘性檢齣率呈下降趨勢,而經性途徑感染的HIV感染者呈上升趨勢.亞洲艾滋病流行模型(asian epidemic model,AEM)顯示,2005-2007年新髮感染者中通過性途徑感染的比例分彆為50.6%、52.3%、52.7%,經吸毒感染人數比例分彆為48.9%、47.2%、46.7%.Workbook模型顯示,2007年成人現存活的HIV感染者中,經註射吸毒感染的佔50.3%,經性途徑感染的佔48.4%.結論 德宏州艾滋病疫情經吸毒傳播快速上升勢頭得到初步遏製,艾滋病的傳播模式已由經靜脈註射吸毒為主轉換為經性途徑和註射吸毒傳播兩種途徑併重的跼麵.
목적 대운남성덕굉주당전애자병역정적전파모식주출초보판단.방법 대덕굉주1989-2007년애자병감측(검측)복개인군수량급기구성비、보고적감염자(환자)적류행병학자료응용SAS 8.0연건진행분석.장덕굉주1989-2007년적인구규모、고위인군규모급고위행위수거、2000-2007년출생성별비、총화생육솔등인구학수거대입모형,대덕굉주애자병전파모식진행판단.결과 병례보고중경성도경감염적비례2005년위39.1%,2006년위46.9%,2007년1월1 일-9월20일적1636례감염자(환자)중약52%위경성도경전파.대1989-2007년감측(검측)인수적구성비표화후결과현시,흡독인군중애자병병독(HIV)양성검출솔정하강추세,이경성도경감염적HIV감염자정상승추세.아주애자병류행모형(asian epidemic model,AEM)현시,2005-2007년신발감염자중통과성도경감염적비례분별위50.6%、52.3%、52.7%,경흡독감염인수비례분별위48.9%、47.2%、46.7%.Workbook모형현시,2007년성인현존활적HIV감염자중,경주사흡독감염적점50.3%,경성도경감염적점48.4%.결론 덕굉주애자병역정경흡독전파쾌속상승세두득도초보알제,애자병적전파모식이유경정맥주사흡독위주전환위경성도경화주사흡독전파량충도경병중적국면.
Objective To uncover the transmission patterns of the HIV epidemic in Dehong prefecture.Methods The reviewed case reports,data of sentinel surveillance,testing and special survey were analyzed by SAS 8.0 program.The transmission patterns were modeled by utilizing data including sizes of the whole population and the high risk groups,high risk behavior data from 1989 to 2007,and the population index such as sex ratio and fertility rate.Results In 2005,case reports showed the proportion of people infected with HIV through sexual contact was 39.1%,and 46.9%in 2006.Among 1636 cases reported between January 1 to September 20,2007,the proportion of people infected with HIV through sexual contact was 52%.From 1 989 to 2007,the proportion of HIV infection among drug users was declining,while HIV infection through sexual contact was rising after standardizing the population tested/surveyed.The Asian Epidemic Model has shown that the proportions of incident HIV infections through sexual transmissions were 50.6%,52.3%and 52.7%respectively from 2005 to 2007.Correspondingly,the proportions of incident cases by injecting drug user were 48.9%,47.2%and 46.7%respectively during this period.Moreover,the Workbook method has shown that,among adults living with HIV in 2007,50.3%were infected through injecting drugs and 48.4%through unsafe sexual activity.Conclusion The rapid rise in HIV infections through injecting drug in Dehong prefecture has been initially curbed.HW epidemic has already witnessed a change from predominantly through drug injecting-related activity to an almost equally fuelled epidemic by sexual and drug-related transmission.
