农业系统科学与综合研究
農業繫統科學與綜閤研究
농업계통과학여종합연구
SYSTEM SCIENCES AND COMPREHENSIVE STUDIES IN AGRICULTURE
2010年
1期
16-21
,共6页
耕地保护%外部性%耕地需求量%耕地供给量%耕地保有量%湖南省
耕地保護%外部性%耕地需求量%耕地供給量%耕地保有量%湖南省
경지보호%외부성%경지수구량%경지공급량%경지보유량%호남성
arable land protection%externalities%demand of arable land%farmland supply%ensuring supply of arable land%Hu'nan province.
在分析耕地保护外部性的基础上,预测了规划期间湖南省在保障粮食安全、经济发展和生态环境保护三大目标下的耕地需求量;根据现有耕地数量、规划期间可能增加量和减少量预测了耕地供给量;然后对耕地供需平衡进行了综合分析并确定了规划期间湖南省的耕地保有量:2010-2015年为353.17万hm~2~375.67万hm~2,2016-2023年为371.03万hm~2~375.84万hm~2.该预测结果可为湖南省土地利用总体规划确定耕地保有量目标提供参考依据.图1,表1,参15.
在分析耕地保護外部性的基礎上,預測瞭規劃期間湖南省在保障糧食安全、經濟髮展和生態環境保護三大目標下的耕地需求量;根據現有耕地數量、規劃期間可能增加量和減少量預測瞭耕地供給量;然後對耕地供需平衡進行瞭綜閤分析併確定瞭規劃期間湖南省的耕地保有量:2010-2015年為353.17萬hm~2~375.67萬hm~2,2016-2023年為371.03萬hm~2~375.84萬hm~2.該預測結果可為湖南省土地利用總體規劃確定耕地保有量目標提供參攷依據.圖1,錶1,參15.
재분석경지보호외부성적기출상,예측료규화기간호남성재보장양식안전、경제발전화생태배경보호삼대목표하적경지수구량;근거현유경지수량、규화기간가능증가량화감소량예측료경지공급량;연후대경지공수평형진행료종합분석병학정료규화기간호남성적경지보유량:2010-2015년위353.17만hm~2~375.67만hm~2,2016-2023년위371.03만hm~2~375.84만hm~2.해예측결과가위호남성토지이용총체규화학정경지보유량목표제공삼고의거.도1,표1,삼15.
Based on analysis of the externalities of farmland protection,the paper predicted the demand of cultivated land from the respeet of food-safety,economic development and ecological protection,the supply of arable land after analyzing all factors which probably made the supply of farmland increase or decrease in Hunan province,then comprehensively analyzed supply-demand balance of arable land.At last the paper predicted the ensuring supplies of arable land of Hunan province during the planning are 3 531 700-3 756 700 hm~2 for 2010 to 2015 and 3 710 300-3 758 400 hm~2 for 2016 to 2023.These will provide important support to the land use planning in Hu'nan province.