CAJ | 학술논문

太阳质子事件对航天活动构成重要威胁,预测一定时期内太阳质子通量对航天器抗辐射加固设计有重要的指导意义.在第20至23太阳活动周的太阳质子事件数据统计分析的基础上,建立了一个针对E>10 MeV和E>30MeV太阳质子通量的新模型.新模型与目前航天工程中常用的JPL模型相比较,引入了太阳活动性对质子事件发生概率的影响因素,能够评估不同太阳活动水平下的质子通量,其结果更符合质子事件的分布特征.
태양질자사건대항천활동구성중요위협,예측일정시기내태양질자통량대항천기항복사가고설계유중요적지도의의.재제20지23태양활동주적태양질자사건수거통계분석적기출상,건립료일개침대E>10 MeV화E>30MeV태양질자통량적신모형.신모형여목전항천공정중상용적JPL모형상비교,인입료태양활동성대질자사건발생개솔적영향인소,능구평고불동태양활동수평하적질자통량,기결과경부합질자사건적분포특정.
Solar Proton Event (SPE) has great influence on the human space activities. Establishing prediction model for total fluence of solar protons accumulated during a mission and taking protective measures are of vital significance for the security of the spacecraft and astronauts. Based on a data set of proton events from the last four solar cycles, a new statistical model is designed to predict the proton fluence for space mission analysis. The energy ranges considered are E > 10 MeV and E > 30 MeV, respectively. Because of the quasi-random nature of the occurrences, and spectra of SPE, solar proton mission fluence must be treated statistically. The purpose of this analysis is to derive the probability of exceeding various proton fluence as a function of proton energy and mission duration. Compared with commonly used JPL model, solar activity levels are taken into account to obtain the occurrence probability of proton events. The new model can access proton fluence in different phase, and is more consistent with the distribution of proton events.