CAJ | 학술논문

选择1951～2006年逐月降水和温度资料,计算出南疆年平均蒸发量及可利用降水量.在详细分析了50a来南疆地区降水、气温、蒸发及可利用降水量变化特征的基础上,采用逐步回归周期分析法对降水、气温和可利用降水量进行了模拟,并对未来5a上述要素进行了预测.结果表明,20世纪70年代以后南疆地区的温度、降水和蒸发变化基本呈上升态势,可利用降水量却呈现出偏多和偏少交替的波状变化特征.这说明气候变暖,可利用降水量不一定增多,未来5a南疆地区可利用降水量将可能减少.
선택1951～2006년축월강수화온도자료,계산출남강년평균증발량급가이용강수량.재상세분석료50a래남강지구강수、기온、증발급가이용강수량변화특정적기출상,채용축보회귀주기분석법대강수、기온화가이용강수량진행료모의,병대미래5a상술요소진행료예측.결과표명,20세기70년대이후남강지구적온도、강수화증발변화기본정상승태세,가이용강수량각정현출편다화편소교체적파상변화특정.저설명기후변난,가이용강수량불일정증다,미래5a남강지구가이용강수량장가능감소.
Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1951 to 2006, the annual mean evaporation and the available precipitation in Southern Xinjiang were calculated. By analyzing the characteristics of changes in precipitation, temperature, evaporation and available precipitation over the last 50 years, the precipitation, temperature and available precipitation were simulated using the periodic analysis of stepwise regression. Then, they were predicted for the coming five years. The results show that the changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation have basically had an increasing tendency since the 1970s. However, the available precipitation has exhibited fluctuating characteristics, that is, relatively larger and smaller amounts than the average ones at different time. With climate change, the available precipitation does not necessarily increase, and it may decrease in Southern Xinjiang in the coming five years.