CAJ | 학술논문

利用唐山市1956年-2006年降水量资料,分析该区域降水量变化情况.采用数理统计方法对降水量的年内变化与年际变化进行分析,年内降水比较集中,80%降水量集中在汛期,年际变化的极值比在4.0左右.采用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法对降水量序列进行趋势分析,降水量呈递减趋势.对降水量变化过程进行变异点的识别与检验,1981年降水量过程发生显著突变.采用模糊假设检验法对降水量系列进行周期性分析,唐山市降水量变化存在40～50年的中周期.降水量是地表水、地下水的补给来源,研究和分析降水量变化特征,对制定水资源开发利用方案、合理配置水资源具有重要意义.
이용당산시1956년-2006년강수량자료,분석해구역강수량변화정황.채용수리통계방법대강수량적년내변화여년제변화진행분석,년내강수비교집중,80%강수량집중재신기,년제변화적겁치비재4.0좌우.채용Mann-Kendall비삼수질차상관검험법대강수량서렬진행추세분석,강수량정체감추세.대강수량변화과정진행변이점적식별여검험,1981년강수량과정발생현저돌변.채용모호가설검험법대강수량계렬진행주기성분석,당산시강수량변화존재40～50년적중주기.강수량시지표수、지하수적보급래원,연구화분석강수량변화특정,대제정수자원개발이용방안、합리배치수자원구유중요의의.
With annual precipitation data from 1956 to 2006 in Tangshan,it analyzes the change of the regional precipitation.Mathematical statistics method is used to analyze the annual and inter-annual precipitation,and it is proved that 80% of the precipitation centralizes in flood season,the extremely ratio of inter-annual variability is about 4.0.The result shows that the precipitation in Tangshan city appears in descending trendency through trend analysis by Mann-Kendall non-parametric rank correlation analysis.Through identification and inspection of the variation points in precipitation variation,it indicated that the rainfall process have changed dramatically in 1981.After analyzing to the periodicity of precipitation series by fuzzy assumption testing method,there is a characteristic of 40~50 years cycle of the precipitation change in Tangshan city.Precipitation is the supply source of surface water and groundwater,so research and analogy of the precipitation characteristics is very important to layout of water resources development and utilization scheme,and to the rational allocation of water resources.