CAJ | 학술논문

城市人口分布变化过程是复杂的动态系统,掌握其规律在城市规划和社会可持续发展中有重要意义.用相互作用的多智能体系统(MAS)、元胞自动机(CA)环境及城市人口密度模型构建精确到街道的城市人口分布模型,并以长沙为例,分析城市人口分布的演变过程,为相关的调控提供决策依据.研究结果表明,其模拟的城市人口分布格局与实际情况吻合较好,在多种因素的影响下,长沙市将形成"市中心人口快速增长,近郊区人口缓慢增长,沿湘江畔、沿五一大道及岳麓区高新技术开发区人口密集"的发展格局.与以往的模型进行相比,所获得的模拟结果精度更高,更接近于实际的空间分布格局.
성시인구분포변화과정시복잡적동태계통,장악기규률재성시규화화사회가지속발전중유중요의의.용상호작용적다지능체계통(MAS)、원포자동궤(CA)배경급성시인구밀도모형구건정학도가도적성시인구분포모형,병이장사위례,분석성시인구분포적연변과정,위상관적조공제공결책의거.연구결과표명,기모의적성시인구분포격국여실제정황문합교호,재다충인소적영향하,장사시장형성"시중심인구쾌속증장,근교구인구완만증장,연상강반、연오일대도급악록구고신기술개발구인구밀집"적발전격국.여이왕적모형진행상비,소획득적모의결과정도경고,경접근우실제적공간분포격국.
The changing process of urban population distribution is a complicated dynamic system, so to learn its law is of great significance in urban planning and social sustainable development. Taking the interaction of the multi-agent system (MAS), cellular automata (CA) environment and urban population density model to build the urban population distribution model which can be accurate to the streets, this paper analyzes the process of ur-ban population distribution in Changsha so as to provide a decision-making basis for related regulation. The re-search results show that the simulation of urban population distribution pattern is in agreement with the actual situations. Under the influence of various factors, Changsha's population development will follow such a pattern: the downtown population grows rapidly while the suburban population increases slowly, and along the Xiangjiang river bank, the Wuyi road and the Yuelu high-tech development zone, the population will get very dense. Com-pared with the previous model, the simulation results obtain a higher precision, and therefore are much closer to the actual spatial distribution pattern.