中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2012年
8期
703-707
,共5页
李霓%郑荣寿%张思维%邹小农%曾红梅%代珍%陈万青
李霓%鄭榮壽%張思維%鄒小農%曾紅梅%代珍%陳萬青
리예%정영수%장사유%추소농%증홍매%대진%진만청
乳腺肿瘤%发病率%预测%中国
乳腺腫瘤%髮病率%預測%中國
유선종류%발병솔%예측%중국
Breast neoplasms%Incidence%Prediction%China
目的 利用1998-2007年中国肿瘤登记发病数据,分析中国城乡女性乳腺癌的发病趋势,并预测2008 -2015年中国城乡女性乳腺癌发病情况.方法 从全国肿瘤登记中心数据库中提取1998-2007年女性乳腺癌发病数据,其中,城市地区发病74 936例,覆盖人口164 830 893人年；农村地区发病8230例,覆盖人口55 395 229人年.计算城乡地区年度乳腺癌发病率,采用世界人口年龄结构计算标化发病率.应用JoinPoint软件对发病率变化趋势进行分析,计算年度变化率( PC值)；利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型对中国1998-2007年城乡女性乳腺癌发病趋势进行拟合,预测2008-2015年乳腺癌地区别发病情况.结果 1998-2007年,中国城市肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率为45.46/10万(74 936/164 830 893),标化发病率为31.28/10万；农村地区发病率为14.86/10万(8230/55 395 229),标化发病率为12.13/10万.城乡登记地区乳腺癌发病率分别从1998年的36.17/10万(3920/10 838 355)和10.39/10万(436/4 197 806),上升至2007年的51.24/10万(11302/22 057 787)和19.61/10万(1475/7 522 690).10年间,中国城乡人群乳腺癌发病率均呈上升趋势,农村妇女乳腺癌发病 PC值(6.3％)高于城市妇女(3.9％).贝叶斯模型预测,2015年中国乳腺癌发病率城市女性为53.87/10万(发病185 585例),农村女性为40.14/10万(发病132 432例).结论 中国城乡地区女性乳腺癌发病率均呈逐年升高趋势,预计乳腺癌新发病例仍将逐年增多.
目的 利用1998-2007年中國腫瘤登記髮病數據,分析中國城鄉女性乳腺癌的髮病趨勢,併預測2008 -2015年中國城鄉女性乳腺癌髮病情況.方法 從全國腫瘤登記中心數據庫中提取1998-2007年女性乳腺癌髮病數據,其中,城市地區髮病74 936例,覆蓋人口164 830 893人年；農村地區髮病8230例,覆蓋人口55 395 229人年.計算城鄉地區年度乳腺癌髮病率,採用世界人口年齡結構計算標化髮病率.應用JoinPoint軟件對髮病率變化趨勢進行分析,計算年度變化率( PC值)；利用年齡-時期-隊列的貝葉斯模型對中國1998-2007年城鄉女性乳腺癌髮病趨勢進行擬閤,預測2008-2015年乳腺癌地區彆髮病情況.結果 1998-2007年,中國城市腫瘤登記地區女性乳腺癌髮病率為45.46/10萬(74 936/164 830 893),標化髮病率為31.28/10萬；農村地區髮病率為14.86/10萬(8230/55 395 229),標化髮病率為12.13/10萬.城鄉登記地區乳腺癌髮病率分彆從1998年的36.17/10萬(3920/10 838 355)和10.39/10萬(436/4 197 806),上升至2007年的51.24/10萬(11302/22 057 787)和19.61/10萬(1475/7 522 690).10年間,中國城鄉人群乳腺癌髮病率均呈上升趨勢,農村婦女乳腺癌髮病 PC值(6.3％)高于城市婦女(3.9％).貝葉斯模型預測,2015年中國乳腺癌髮病率城市女性為53.87/10萬(髮病185 585例),農村女性為40.14/10萬(髮病132 432例).結論 中國城鄉地區女性乳腺癌髮病率均呈逐年升高趨勢,預計乳腺癌新髮病例仍將逐年增多.
목적 이용1998-2007년중국종류등기발병수거,분석중국성향녀성유선암적발병추세,병예측2008 -2015년중국성향녀성유선암발병정황.방법 종전국종류등기중심수거고중제취1998-2007년녀성유선암발병수거,기중,성시지구발병74 936례,복개인구164 830 893인년；농촌지구발병8230례,복개인구55 395 229인년.계산성향지구년도유선암발병솔,채용세계인구년령결구계산표화발병솔.응용JoinPoint연건대발병솔변화추세진행분석,계산년도변화솔( PC치)；이용년령-시기-대렬적패협사모형대중국1998-2007년성향녀성유선암발병추세진행의합,예측2008-2015년유선암지구별발병정황.결과 1998-2007년,중국성시종류등기지구녀성유선암발병솔위45.46/10만(74 936/164 830 893),표화발병솔위31.28/10만；농촌지구발병솔위14.86/10만(8230/55 395 229),표화발병솔위12.13/10만.성향등기지구유선암발병솔분별종1998년적36.17/10만(3920/10 838 355)화10.39/10만(436/4 197 806),상승지2007년적51.24/10만(11302/22 057 787)화19.61/10만(1475/7 522 690).10년간,중국성향인군유선암발병솔균정상승추세,농촌부녀유선암발병 PC치(6.3％)고우성시부녀(3.9％).패협사모형예측,2015년중국유선암발병솔성시녀성위53.87/10만(발병185 585례),농촌녀성위40.14/10만(발병132 432례).결론 중국성향지구녀성유선암발병솔균정축년승고추세,예계유선암신발병례잉장축년증다.
Objective Based on the registered female breast cancer data from 1998 to 2007,to analyze the incidence of female breast cancer during the period and then to predict its trend from 2008 to 2015.Methods The incidence data of breast cancer from 1998 to 2007 were sorted from National Cancer Registry Database,including 74 936 cases from urban areas and 8230 cases from rural areas,separately covering 164 830 893 and 55 395 229 person years.The crude incidence rates in urban and rural areas were calculated, and the age-standardized rate (ASR) was adjusted by World Segi's population composition.JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the 10 years' incidence trend and calculated the annual percentage of changing (APC),while Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the data and predict the incidence of breast cancer between 2008 and 2015.Results From 1998 to 2007,the incidence of breast cancer in the urban cancer registration areas was 45.46/100 000 (74 936/164 830 893 ),whose ASR was 31.28/100 000.While in rural registration areas,the incidence and ASR was 14,86/100 000 (8230/55 395 229) and 12.13/100 000.The breast cancer incidence in urban and rural areas separately rose from 36.17/100 000 ( 3920/10 838 355 ) and 10.39/100 000 ( 436/4 197 806 ) in 1998 to 51.24/100 000( 11 302/22 057 787) and 19.61/100 000 ( 1475/7 522 690) in 2007.During the 10 years,the breast cancer incidence increased both in urban and rural areas,but the increase rate in rural incidence (6.3％ ) was more significant than it in urban areas (3.9％).Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that the breast cancer incidence would increase to 53.87/100 000 ( 185 585 new cases) in urban areas and 40.14/100 000 ( 132 432 new cases) in rural areas,respectively.Conclusion The breast cancer incidence has been increasing annually both in urban and rural areas in China; and an annually increase number of new cases have been predicted.
